TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will China win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$197,681
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,242

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,681 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9bd7…63cebacked Yes0c27,445$27 inLost-$27.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ed9…d3cfbacked Yes0c27,362$27 inLost-$27.3620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0000…9d64backed Yes0c16,644$17 inLost-$16.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1612…2248backed Yes0c16,633$17 inLost-$16.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ad…cafdbacked Yes0c15,789$16 inLost-$15.7930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9080…7e9cbacked Yes0c10,802$11 inLost-$10.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0ee…3d5fbacked Yes0c10,729$11 inLost-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c4,580$15 inLost-$15.062448.2%20 W · 224 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-61.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cd…316abacked Yes0c3,182$10 inLost-$101020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-62.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes3c1,249$41 inLost-$41.2128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-84.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0262…a9d2backed Yes2c1,220$20 inLost-$19.961717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a6e…2100backed Yes2c589.65$11 inLost-$11714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-78.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.