TailMyPicks
Market

Olympics · resolved market

Will Switzerland win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$242,232
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,416

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $242,232 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbad2…5296backed Yes0c36,739$59 inLost-$59.047627.6%21 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes1c12,362$75 inLost-$75.06185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-82.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c11,045$12 inLost-$11.71180%0 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff97…3958backed Yes0c10,855$11 inLost-$10.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ad…cafdbacked Yes0c10,839$11 inLost-$10.8430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb173…2b06backed Yes0c6,620$22 inLost-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c5,162$17 inLost-$17.32420%0 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c4,198$25 inLost-$24.73630%0 W · 63 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes2c3,903$63 inLost-$62.615516.4%9 W · 46 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-70.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes0c3,472$15 inLost-$15.3580%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2a9…9234backed Yes1c3,076$23 inLost-$22.5430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3e…d8d0backed Yes3c2,984$100 inLost-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes1c1,905$19 inLost-$19.28128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-84.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,858$26 inLost-$25.952448.2%20 W · 224 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-61.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes2c1,729$36 inLost-$35.563737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes1c1,456$12 inLost-$12.15244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-82.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c1,334$20 inLost-$19.72333%1 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-89.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab44…a5b9backed Yes1c1,250$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e36…70e3backed Yes1c1,136$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3711…fd24backed Yes1c975.61$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5554…b12dbacked Yes2c799.99$18 inLost-$18100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c745.15$15 inLost-$15.44119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-76.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Yes2c654.19$13 inLost-$12.9770%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.