Movies · resolved market
Will 'A Working Man' gross between 11-14m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ed3ec914279e17fa888f1abbaaa35b80e3f4b2e758bb6824ba4b7ecd30bd3be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 66c | 5,678$3,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,723.74 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 5c | 5,428$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.87 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 17c | 5,379$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.41 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 8c | 3,464$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.82 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,401$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 2,955$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 5c | 2,384$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.68 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 65c | 1,934$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 49c | 1,869$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.26 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 40c | 1,362$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.45 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 1,300$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,020$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 2c | 893.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 22c | 806.25$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.19 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 4c | 700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 42c | 564.38$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.63 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 2c | 515$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6a…c597backed Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 40c | 471$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.36 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 39c | 435.64$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.35 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 5c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b1…4960backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 34c | 375.89$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.96 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked No | 36c | 373.5$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.64 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe22…66b3backed Yes | 4c | 349.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e39…4e41backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 18c | 280.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef05…3dffbacked Yes | 63c | 277$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.3 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 6c | 205.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed No | 52c | 192.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.46 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 7c | 160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 32c | 138.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.51 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 103.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 40.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83eb…2ea6backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'A Working Man' gross between 11-14m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'A Working Man' gross between 14-17m on opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'A Working Man' gross less than 11m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'A Working Man' gross more than 17m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.