Movies · resolved market
Will 'A Working Man' gross between 14-17m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53c64907e9c49a064aa76de4af45586628c6a24b6c3ea84358961c716b736b17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes | 80c | 5,889$4,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.52 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 28c | 1,975$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.84 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 6c | 1,775$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.15 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 36c | 1,659$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.44 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 25c | 1,586$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.58 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 19c | 1,387$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.28 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 51c | 1,370$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.7 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 5c | 1,260$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 34c | 997.62$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.68 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef05…3dffbacked Yes | 28c | 750$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.47 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 38c | 615.63$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.98 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6a…c597backed No | 3c | 509.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…5ffcbacked No | 79c | 499.98$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.02 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 25c | 445.17$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.51 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 75c | 391$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.25 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 390$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.93 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 28c | 389.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 353.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.22 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes | 33c | 271$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.75 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 79c | 216.79$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 211.13$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.87 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 14c | 182.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.55 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 15c | 160.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.46 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 17c | 150.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.35 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 70c | 135$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 29c | 132.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.99 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…c691backed Yes | 23c | 88.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…47bdbacked Yes | 63c | 88.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 72c | 80.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked No | 14c | 78.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed Yes | 79c | 52.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 21c | 52.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 71c | 25.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'A Working Man' gross between 14-17m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'A Working Man' gross between 11-14m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'A Working Man' gross less than 11m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'A Working Man' gross more than 17m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.