Movies · resolved market
Will 'A Working Man' gross less than 11m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63392afad5586c483453785c59f0d6d8e36dc7f4cd5017b269a4c96236753d78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 1c | 12,189$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 10c | 2,713$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.52 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 1,701$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 10c | 1,577$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.25 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 1c | 1,405$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 34c | 1,289$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,174$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 2c | 935.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 6c | 757$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 5c | 601.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 506.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 5c | 474.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 5c | 372.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 214.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 7c | 214.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 211.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e39…4e41backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 21c | 64.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'A Working Man' gross less than 11m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'A Working Man' gross between 11-14m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'A Working Man' gross between 14-17m on opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'A Working Man' gross more than 17m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.