WNBA · resolved market
Will the Las Vegas Aces win the 2025 WNBA Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e547e06ffc0a58b1b3595d3daaadcedeb6f7bb97d5037cc055e2bcdcbef26a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 10,083$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…fdfebacked Yes | 56c | 4,500$2,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 16c | 3,090$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.25 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 9c | 2,006$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,824.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +148%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,831$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,696.5 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 15c | 1,007$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +56%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefad…105cbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +2,281%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f4…05e9backed Yes | 4c | 822.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +803.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e2…bb8dbacked Yes | 4c | 818.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +787.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 15c | 708.41$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 10c | 708.41$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 6cpaid | +788.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 42c | 430$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.74 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 34c | 319.01$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +466.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 7c | 305.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.69 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 70c | 293$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c3…0230backed Yes | 53c | 267.53$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98aa…fb43backed Yes | 24c | 266.38$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234f…b5bebacked Yes | 32c | 258.3$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 21c | 250$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 37c | 210$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.44 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85fb…7c3abacked Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +133.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0e…f969backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 36cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 64c | 89.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 71c | 61.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 29c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…db37backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Las Vegas Aces win the 2025 WNBA Championship?this page
- Will the Atlanta Dream win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
- Will the Chicago Sky win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
- Will the Connecticut Sun win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
- Will the Dallas Wings win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
- Will the Golden State Valkyries win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
- Will the Indiana Fever win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Sparks win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
- Will the Minnesota Lynx win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
- Will the New York Liberty win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
- Will the Phoenix Mercury win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
- Will the Seattle Storm win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
- Will the Washington Mystics win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.