WNBA · resolved market
Will the Phoenix Mercury win the 2025 WNBA Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefbff7df34c38dd80d5fb3af19464149fbad6ff79850c5faa01df98c6a225558
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Yes | 9c | 9,988$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.87 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.23per pick | 31cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,874$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe52f…e6b0backed Yes | 46c | 3,000$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 30c | 2,877$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +148%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,599$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.52 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 9c | 1,086$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.06 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…1832backed Yes | 3c | 1,071$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 3c | 914.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 3c | 870$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Yes | 10c | 763.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 21c | 668$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.61 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234f…b5bebacked Yes | 6c | 600$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…d771backed Yes | 8c | 585.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 3c | 554.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +56%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Yes | 42c | 469.02$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.99 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa161…86fdbacked Yes | 46c | 430.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Yes | 4c | 394.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 5c | 329$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 3c | 296$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…8fe6backed Yes | 23c | 219.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes | 6c | 157.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e2…bb8dbacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +787.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 17c | 79.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 80c | 15.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Phoenix Mercury win the 2025 WNBA Championship?this page
- Will the Atlanta Dream win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
- Will the Chicago Sky win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
- Will the Connecticut Sun win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
- Will the Dallas Wings win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
- Will the Golden State Valkyries win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
- Will the Indiana Fever win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
- Will the Las Vegas Aces win the 2025 WNBA Championship?Yes won
- Will the Los Angeles Sparks win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
- Will the Minnesota Lynx win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
- Will the New York Liberty win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
- Will the Seattle Storm win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
- Will the Washington Mystics win the 2025 WNBA Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.