World Politics · resolved market
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfac98674a774531c2b7def1ce530ef2eaa78a1c444f794923826f2660b1eaa14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $988,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,003,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $988,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 507 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 64c | 38,821$24,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,083.35 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked No | 40c | 35,006$13,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,124.32 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…6374backed Yes | 69c | 33,917$23,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,570.89 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd6…e696backed Yes | 60c | 33,123$19,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,873.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…6b40backed No | 40c | 33,123$13,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,873.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed No | 51c | 30,118$15,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,851.13 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…6ac2backed Yes | 60c | 29,522$17,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,713.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa745…c20fbacked No | 40c | 29,522$11,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,713.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27af…58a1backed No | 30c | 28,288$8,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,744.22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa176…4167backed Yes | 58c | 28,107$16,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,302.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac8…4916backed No | 42c | 28,107$11,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,302.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +117.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88bd…3cd7backed No | 72c | 27,242$19,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,532.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 33c | 26,477$8,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,738.23 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 62c | 25,000$15,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,570.43 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 35c | 16,518$5,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,854.7 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…0081backed No | 29c | 15,430$4,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,927.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc0…61fbbacked Yes | 34c | 15,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,099.98 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 50cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked No | 56c | 13,926$7,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,150.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7225…36a2backed No | 75c | 13,925$10,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,511.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +34%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 10c | 13,454$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.89 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 36c | 11,480$4,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,124.9 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07f4…dbfebacked Yes | 66c | 10,209$6,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,757.02 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15c6…6ed6backed Yes | 62c | 10,067$6,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,241.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 41c | 9,192$3,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,468.75 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 44c | 8,451$3,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,769.41 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c07…48d9backed Yes | 74c | 8,338$6,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,135.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5da…c8afbacked No | 37c | 8,109$2,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,116.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d8…2722backed Yes | 80c | 7,516$5,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,994.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 74c | 6,975$5,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,166.39 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd291…103ebacked Yes | 20c | 6,795$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.68 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 50c | 6,783$3,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,364.35 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 64c | 6,756$4,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,355.56 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 20c | 6,252$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,001.42 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…ef6fbacked Yes | 29c | 6,146$1,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc0…9901backed Yes | 18c | 6,053$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 14c | 5,830$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.12 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc93…37b1backed No | 46c | 5,213$2,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,799.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd459…13f9backed Yes | 64c | 5,200$3,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,315.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 14c | 5,134$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.77 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x278a…82f4backed No | 65c | 4,837$3,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,716.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f0…d29ebacked No | 31c | 4,460$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,073.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…f962backed No | 63c | 3,999$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 41c | 3,993$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651.84 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 66c | 3,890$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.82 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…440ebacked No | 24c | 3,784$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,886.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes | 72c | 3,680$2,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,663.14 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 61c | 3,361$2,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,045.53 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 76c | 3,267$2,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.83 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 61c | 3,245$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988.62 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 3,224$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.27 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 44c | 3,173$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.83 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…1d0abacked Yes | 80c | 3,166$2,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,533.02 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -6.1wins | -0.47per pick | 54cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3027…95f5backed Yes | 3c | 3,163$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 66c | 3,159$2,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.5 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed No | 41c | 3,040$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,805.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 69c | 3,000$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 62c | 3,000$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.99 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 59c | 2,992$1,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.18 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c50…3e65backed No | 46c | 2,990$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,983$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3f…de34backed No | 71c | 2,937$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb962…a069backed Yes | 77c | 2,915$2,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,256.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked No | 30c | 2,762$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,944.66 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 18c | 2,762$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.13 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 40c | 2,703$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.63 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 73c | 2,697$1,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,962.72 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf5…a5e4backed No | 37c | 2,665$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,671.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0111…0463backed No | 35c | 2,664$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,728.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 70c | 2,598$1,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.59 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 65c | 2,597$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.62 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ec…18a4backed Yes | 78c | 2,483$1,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 45c | 2,412$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.58 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…b3e8backed No | 50c | 2,318$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.91 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 61c | 2,205$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.83 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,130$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.39 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 43c | 2,110$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.48 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 60c | 2,067$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.4 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 64c | 2,054$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.09 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 18c | 2,051$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.17 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…955cbacked Yes | 60c | 2,046$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.62 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 29c | 2,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 1,980$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.71 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 67c | 1,968$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.64 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc85a…8cd8backed Yes | 62c | 1,955$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 43c | 1,913$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.73 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 67c | 1,841$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.54 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,783$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e34…4982backed No | 35c | 1,768$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 29c | 1,763$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.64 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…83e9backed No | 35c | 1,614$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…5dcdbacked Yes | 76c | 1,588$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…04f4backed Yes | 72c | 1,549$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.95 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 73c | 1,543$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.38 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked No | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce4e…44d0backed No | 33c | 1,493$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…389dbacked Yes | 36c | 1,389$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9b…5112backed No | 42c | 1,368$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed No | 52c | 1,325$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.36 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 57c | 1,318$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.79 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 50c | 1,298$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.9 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.