TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$988,224
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,003,135

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $988,224 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 507 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x96c6…34a2backed No64c38,821$24,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,083.354148.8%20 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked No40c35,006$13,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,124.325131.4%16 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+81.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ae…6374backed Yes69c33,917$23,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,570.891421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdcd6…e696backed Yes60c33,123$19,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,873.820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2528…6b40backed No40c33,123$13,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,873.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+64.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed No51c30,118$15,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,851.131457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+26.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d8c…6ac2backed Yes60c29,522$17,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,713.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa745…c20fbacked No40c29,522$11,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,713.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27af…58a1backed No30c28,288$8,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,744.22683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+42.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa176…4167backed Yes58c28,107$16,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,302.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+59.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfac8…4916backed No42c28,107$11,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,302.063100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+117.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x88bd…3cd7backed No72c27,242$19,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,532.38728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes33c26,477$8,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,738.232429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes62c25,000$15,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,570.432729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb5f…0848backed Yes35c16,518$5,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,854.77238.9%28 W · 44 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd71c…0081backed No29c15,430$4,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,927.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc0…61fbbacked Yes34c15,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.98785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick50cpaid+64.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b76…edefbacked No56c13,926$7,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,150.93580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7225…36a2backed No75c13,925$10,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,511.81154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+34%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes10c13,454$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.8912630.2%38 W · 88 L-0.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid+86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes36c11,480$4,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,124.96648.5%32 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x07f4…dbfebacked Yes66c10,209$6,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,757.021428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15c6…6ed6backed Yes62c10,067$6,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,241.77580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+39.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No41c9,192$3,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,468.755664.3%36 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed No44c8,451$3,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,769.418025%20 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+187.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c07…48d9backed Yes74c8,338$6,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,135.06560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5da…c8afbacked No37c8,109$2,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,116.48616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-54.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9d8…2722backed Yes80c7,516$5,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,994.74450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+40.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes74c6,975$5,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,166.393432.4%11 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd291…103ebacked Yes20c6,795$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,345.681225%3 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-56.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked Yes50c6,783$3,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,364.353540%14 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes64c6,756$4,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,355.566642.4%28 W · 38 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No20c6,252$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,001.425149%25 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x047b…ef6fbacked Yes29c6,146$1,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,782.461650%8 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+90.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fc0…9901backed Yes18c6,053$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes14c5,830$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.12449.1%4 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc93…37b1backed No46c5,213$2,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.02633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd459…13f9backed Yes64c5,200$3,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,315.86650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5838…3636backed Yes14c5,134$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.774753.2%25 W · 22 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+77.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x278a…82f4backed No65c4,837$3,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,716.06633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f0…d29ebacked No31c4,460$1,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,073.93540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cee…f962backed No63c3,999$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.51050%5 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+50.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes41c3,993$1,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,651.847225%18 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes66c3,890$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.829334.4%32 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ae…440ebacked No24c3,784$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,886.51450%7 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+164.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes72c3,680$2,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,663.144045%18 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes61c3,361$2,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,045.5327828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No76c3,267$2,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.835149%25 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+168.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4d1b…1419backed Yes61c3,245$1,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,988.622653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c3,224$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.2718216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes44c3,173$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.832040%8 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fad…1d0abacked Yes80c3,166$2,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,533.02137.7%1 W · 12 L-6.1wins-0.47per pick54cpaid-89.9%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x3027…95f5backed Yes3c3,163$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No66c3,159$2,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.526139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed No41c3,040$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,805.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes69c3,000$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,07010127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes62c3,000$1,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,874.992050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked No59c2,992$1,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.1814330.8%44 W · 99 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+104.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c50…3e65backed No46c2,990$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,617.03333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes10c2,983$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.41838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d3f…de34backed No71c2,937$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.381338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb962…a069backed Yes77c2,915$2,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,256.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked No30c2,762$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,944.662240.9%9 W · 13 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick23cpaid+25.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes18c2,762$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.1313525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes40c2,703$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.637650%38 W · 38 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes73c2,697$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,962.721414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-78.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bf5…a5e4backed No37c2,665$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,671.8922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0111…0463backed No35c2,664$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,728.43933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes70c2,598$1,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,816.595420.4%11 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No65c2,597$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.628047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13ec…18a4backed Yes78c2,483$1,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,930.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes45c2,412$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.5812129.8%36 W · 85 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe05f…b3e8backed No50c2,318$1,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.91128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-83.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No61c2,205$1,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.8325337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes17c2,130$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.392748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes43c2,110$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.4831443.9%138 W · 176 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes60c2,067$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.46634.8%23 W · 43 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fce…2566backed Yes64c2,054$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.091936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes18c2,051$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.172343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb782…955cbacked Yes60c2,046$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.621421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No29c2,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4202147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No29c1,980$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.7156314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes67c1,968$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.6415230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc85a…8cd8backed Yes62c1,955$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.82825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-66.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No43c1,913$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.731,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes67c1,841$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.548328.9%24 W · 59 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,783$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.411,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e34…4982backed No35c1,768$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-58.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes29c1,763$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.6457636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x49dd…83e9backed No35c1,614$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.78728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6136…5dcdbacked Yes76c1,588$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a3…04f4backed Yes72c1,549$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.953132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-44.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes73c1,543$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.3811013.6%15 W · 95 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x543f…9dafbacked No29c1,500$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.4450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+88.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce4e…44d0backed No33c1,493$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.86540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b01…389dbacked Yes36c1,389$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb9b…5112backed No42c1,368$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.82475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+91.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb702…e291backed No52c1,325$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.361926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-50.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes57c1,318$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.7938023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes50c1,298$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.94413.6%6 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.