TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$794,957
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$549,547

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $794,957 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 277 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x08ad…208ebacked Yes6c61,585$3,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,455.0521740.1%87 W · 130 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes6c51,375$2,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,853.5793240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3f4…05e9backed Yes6c41,441$2,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,391.45166.3%1 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fbf…f580backed Yes1c21,266$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.62166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-63.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c17,193$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.39210%0 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes6c15,143$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9011,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes3c15,000$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3851,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes3c11,574$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.27336.1%2 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-83.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bec…f7b7backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4388…09b3backed Yes5c9,961$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.56616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick5cpaid+146.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64f0…7b1fbacked Yes3c9,333$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9ca…04c5backed Yes5c8,751$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.48110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc03…1548backed Yes4c8,044$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.543324.2%8 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22ac…7497backed Yes0c7,500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes6c7,399$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.7918837.8%71 W · 117 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Yes4c7,374$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.413129%9 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-23.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes6c7,219$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.257634.2%26 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-28.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa16f…6df1backed Yes4c7,109$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.9911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-62.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes5c6,124$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.4169547.5%330 W · 365 L-16.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad7b…63dabacked Yes4c5,857$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes6c4,400$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.172020%4 W · 16 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-62.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc69d…1262backed Yes1c4,355$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes7c3,773$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.828125.9%21 W · 60 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-49.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf84…2d2dbacked Yes6c3,621$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf69c…e43dbacked Yes6c3,358$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.09375.4%2 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-83.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Yes6c3,266$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18043153.6%231 W · 200 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes1c3,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes5c2,608$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.3126642.1%112 W · 154 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46a4…fa19backed Yes7c2,429$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.28812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31db…79a4backed Yes5c2,072$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015644.9%70 W · 86 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe05f…b3e8backed Yes6c1,715$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2529145.4%132 W · 159 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72db…af7dbacked Yes6c1,264$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.46166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x328a…224abacked Yes5c1,231$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.76254%1 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-90.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa54…c182backed Yes7c1,195$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.43129%9 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-21%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9329…4d2ebacked Yes8c1,099$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick35cpaid+44.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d74…06d9backed Yes4c1,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick30cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes5c1,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49260%0 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26e9…4a51backed Yes4c999.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210940.4%44 W · 65 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes4c999.65$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.398543.5%37 W · 48 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+42.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaaa7…e4adbacked Yes3c995.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1834…795abacked Yes6c892.66$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.512512%3 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-68.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf58c…2747backed Yes6c879.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5937…bd9bbacked Yes8c858.01$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65326.3%2 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-82%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed Yes6c857.14$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.851513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-66%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d9c…af68backed Yes7c854$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1335…e854backed Yes7c831$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c823.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8563942.7%273 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes6c808.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.18185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-79.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dcb…a83bbacked Yes6c807.12$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.45520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee1f…9cedbacked Yes6c771.96$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.34120%0 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6eb…1052backed Yes5c770.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes4c763.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.431513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-55.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8955…65d9backed Yes7c762$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x436d…c088backed Yes8c746$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04fe…8fcebacked Yes7c745$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc00…c23ebacked Yes7c714$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1be9…e7e4backed Yes8c689$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6271…784ebacked Yes6c679.08$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.99128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-58.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c674.55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.28137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+101.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4909…2486backed Yes7c644$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd325…380ebacked Yes7c629$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes6c624.05$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.02150%0 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcd9…9385backed Yes7c565$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c558$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.263929.4%37 W · 355 L+1.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c35…cc19backed Yes9c555$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb5b…23dfbacked Yes4c540.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb7…0aa8backed Yes8c535$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0291…bbedbacked Yes6c531$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes7c531$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea41…a70ebacked Yes8c528$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1589…0f13backed Yes7c512$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51bc…93afbacked Yes7c510$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507f…e5ccbacked Yes7c502$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9213…00ffbacked Yes6c501$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7941…c675backed Yes5c500$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Yes8c499.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3851151.7%264 W · 247 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c5f…21ecbacked Yes5c496.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e84…17c3backed Yes7c495$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffc…b016backed Yes7c490$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81a5…6450backed Yes6c481$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x196f…9346backed Yes6c475$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13ea…992fbacked Yes6c470$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8cf…7339backed Yes7c465$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04ca…bb9abacked Yes8c464$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49b8…1cb4backed Yes7c454$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcab…ffcabacked Yes7c453$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff9e…1dcfbacked Yes7c451$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8400…2130backed Yes7c448$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa607…af82backed Yes6c446$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd920…8b22backed Yes6c439$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef03…c0f0backed Yes7c438$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aa0…7d33backed Yes7c428$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9daa…5e08backed Yes6c425$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes5c416.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.087035.7%25 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b76…d953backed Yes7c409$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8284…d2e0backed Yes6c399$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46bf…13a7backed Yes7c397$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.