MLB · resolved market
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36c8c6a38e89a6c03aefc70fe85b1021a53987edf43533a81054e7e8bd9e6160
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,166,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,036,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,166,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.74 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…3231backed Yes | 0c | 46,500$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed Yes | 0c | 38,000$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Yes | 2c | 34,631$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.85 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 1c | 25,973$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.87 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e73…3d8fbacked Yes | 0c | 24,928$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.57 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…fde7backed Yes | 0c | 17,444$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…b3e8backed Yes | 0c | 16,589$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 291 | 45.4%132 W · 159 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…dc28backed Yes | 0c | 16,505$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf69c…e43dbacked Yes | 3c | 12,522$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.87 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 12,112$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 12,083$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…79a4backed Yes | 1c | 11,743$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.1 | 156 | 44.9%70 W · 86 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d74…06d9backed Yes | 0c | 10,182$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,933$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 48 | 0%0 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d750backed Yes | 0c | 8,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…1f59backed Yes | 0c | 8,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…65e2backed Yes | 0c | 8,750$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 0c | 8,470$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1d…13e3backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 1c | 6,825$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 266 | 42.1%112 W · 154 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c0…8e1bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…bd9bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -82%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae2…6a0fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,153$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…3b0cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72d…6424backed Yes | 0c | 5,844$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf308…4a83backed Yes | 1c | 5,600$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddaa…2c2abacked Yes | 0c | 5,250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd935…8b7dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,048$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2021…3b95backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8af…f70bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e3…7d46backed Yes | 0c | 4,778$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Yes | 0c | 4,636$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 1c | 4,588$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72db…af7dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,389$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4439…9c3cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,941$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…5b46backed Yes | 0c | 3,550$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9291…5e96backed Yes | 0c | 3,028$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 282 | 58.5%165 W · 117 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f4…05e9backed Yes | 1c | 2,900$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…4c8bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,337$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 1c | 1,954$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -53%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328a…224abacked Yes | 2c | 1,858$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes | 1c | 1,540$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -6.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,106$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,091$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,001$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ca…7e12backed Yes | 3c | 921$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked Yes | 3c | 607.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +13.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf435…853fbacked Yes | 3c | 566.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5f…21ecbacked Yes | 3c | 542.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2602…c021backed Yes | 3c | 406$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series?this page
- Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?Yes won
- Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 World Series?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.