MLB · resolved market
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd88c824f91cbd43e32933b1c9a7f09ae06c081ca53100081a66da5e23e698c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,017,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,957,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,017,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 1c | 263,376$1,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.01 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d8…5744backed Yes | 1c | 76,963$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.74 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Yes | 0c | 75,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…a542backed Yes | 0c | 63,531$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e73…3d8fbacked Yes | 0c | 55,900$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.83 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 1c | 50,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…6137backed Yes | 0c | 46,606$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.42 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes | 0c | 33,234$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.94 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Yes | 0c | 32,992$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x666a…450bbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x332b…9063backed Yes | 0c | 21,750$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb540…b343backed Yes | 1c | 18,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd276…ca73backed Yes | 0c | 17,800$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 0c | 17,320$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…3269backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…530dbacked Yes | 1c | 14,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4529…2790backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…450bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,900$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49e6…7f1fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,373$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4439…9c3cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,417$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4b…931bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,187$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…c3c2backed Yes | 0c | 8,500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe920…40edbacked Yes | 0c | 7,750$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe40…1213backed Yes | 0c | 7,750$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed Yes | 1c | 7,528$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b16…a327backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8af…f70bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8d…ccb3backed Yes | 0c | 6,333$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72cf…69aebacked Yes | 1c | 6,294$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9a…88c0backed Yes | 0c | 6,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,231$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 48 | 0%0 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…bd9bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -82%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c0…8e1bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…fb6cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf69c…e43dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c3…292bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4952…13a5backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd032…212dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x462e…55f3backed Yes | 1c | 4,800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccde…8f58backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…d442backed Yes | 1c | 3,800$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079d…1690backed Yes | 0c | 3,450$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…0c47backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166c…b2b1backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cf…5f1ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842d…9c19backed Yes | 1c | 1,903$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…6c3ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,444$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…51ccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…7997backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71d…0dd6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series?this page
- Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?Yes won
- Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 World Series?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.