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MLB · resolved market

Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,609,644
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,040,559

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,609,644 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes1c285,356$1,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,887.421625%4 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd82b…7858backed Yes1c99,160$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Yes0c90,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41062846.2%290 W · 338 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes1c89,999$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6302123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x351b…4d06backed Yes0c70,836$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.3512939.5%51 W · 78 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2d8…5744backed Yes0c67,618$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.472330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-40.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5a3…cfc3backed Yes0c64,522$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c60,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210260%0 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x441d…4d70backed Yes1c56,416$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.082437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4ce…c3c2backed Yes1c55,867$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.341346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97bd…7a09backed Yes0c50,599$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b9e…97c8backed Yes0c50,262$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes0c50,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24088549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ba5…231dbacked Yes0c49,582$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e73…3d8fbacked Yes0c47,784$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.351741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…e1e2backed Yes0c40,058$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…6137backed Yes1c38,188$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.947238.9%28 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037a…17fcbacked Yes0c36,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-58.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xef9a…8a4abacked Yes0c34,239$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee49…cb39backed Yes0c34,048$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ef2…ddf1backed Yes0c33,888$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4a3…19ffbacked Yes0c33,884$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c33,683$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.23280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c1…b76dbacked Yes0c33,662$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39ed…daa6backed Yes0c33,652$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa18a…bedabacked Yes0c33,573$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bda…ca4cbacked Yes0c33,306$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes0c33,154$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.68336.1%2 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-83.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe377…abfbbacked Yes0c32,681$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e9…d431backed Yes0c32,422$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda54…319fbacked Yes0c32,047$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31bb…34adbacked Yes0c31,835$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fe2…530dbacked Yes0c31,500$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1262245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x481e…934fbacked Yes0c31,360$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.081450%7 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9131…1fa2backed Yes1c25,000$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1252157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5681…cac8backed Yes0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005042%21 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd991…ea1abacked Yes0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72cf…69aebacked Yes1c24,115$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.583948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x982c…deb3backed Yes0c23,103$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1c3…292bbacked Yes0c21,500$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5f…f064backed Yes0c18,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85e9…00babacked Yes0c17,033$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e8…fd0bbacked Yes0c16,788$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb53…3b71backed Yes0c16,576$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x954b…eb22backed Yes1c16,500$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.56847.1%32 W · 36 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6c…5b28backed Yes0c16,423$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.692334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcec1…cbddbacked Yes0c13,997$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd47e…ff0ebacked Yes1c13,500$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x142d…dd52backed Yes1c12,500$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.51553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb490…a8e4backed Yes0c11,058$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x900b…34bcbacked Yes0c10,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4952…13a5backed Yes0c10,457$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.832240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c10,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4439…9c3cbacked Yes0c9,170$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.01195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-81.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5937…bd9bbacked Yes0c8,750$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35326.3%2 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-82%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6bc7…f3afbacked Yes0c8,700$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387c…a6dbbacked Yes1c7,500$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.55642.9%24 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c7,062$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.28480%0 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Yes0c6,662$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.893129%9 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-53%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b7…9cc5backed Yes1c6,488$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…a58ebacked Yes0c6,123$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63d3…ebc6backed Yes1c6,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x955c…3b0cbacked Yes0c6,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a4b…41d5backed Yes0c5,750$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe15…aa32backed Yes0c5,250$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc469…7331backed Yes1c5,154$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddaa…2c2abacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa30…09bfbacked Yes0c4,849$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf69c…e43dbacked Yes1c4,789$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.73375.4%2 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-83.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2b2…71babacked Yes0c4,667$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d1…f12bbacked Yes0c4,655$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a6…aac8backed Yes1c4,549$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842d…9c19backed Yes0c4,499$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf66b…465bbacked Yes0c4,422$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77d7…6547backed Yes1c4,166$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c4,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b39…efc0backed Yes0c4,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eee…ad49backed Yes0c3,350$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bb…b485backed Yes0c3,040$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes1c2,500$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-80.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6b8…d54cbacked Yes1c2,143$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb99e…9ca9backed Yes1c1,875$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d13…832cbacked Yes1c1,667$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7604…9874backed Yes1c1,333$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32bc…4ad2backed Yes1c1,222$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.