MLB · resolved market
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x700803904cd5bc5caac110bb58bee0097d2fbb328e0dc4ee494135cf79a46386
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,428,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $742,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,428,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.64 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69d…1262backed Yes | 1c | 40,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 2c | 23,996$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.01 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 1c | 22,175$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.88 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 2c | 12,625$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.2 | 266 | 42.1%112 W · 154 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…04c5backed Yes | 2c | 11,000$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 10,620$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8442…ec0bbacked Yes | 3c | 10,612$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.87 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…c057backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf69c…e43dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,682$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.69 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 1c | 7,999$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 1c | 7,237$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…d348backed Yes | 1c | 6,490$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…c2abbacked Yes | 0c | 6,113$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…1ce2backed Yes | 1c | 5,714$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 1c | 5,700$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a45…964abacked Yes | 0c | 5,577$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,143$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.43 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 2c | 5,118$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.13 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…170bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf489…3a6dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,750$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f4…05e9backed Yes | 2c | 4,717$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 2c | 4,701$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.59 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…0c47backed Yes | 1c | 4,490$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…b3e8backed Yes | 3c | 4,122$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.07 | 291 | 45.4%132 W · 159 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d36…0269backed Yes | 1c | 3,996$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc1…bf5dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,755$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,463$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 48 | 0%0 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Yes | 2c | 3,443$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842d…9c19backed Yes | 2c | 3,243$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328a…224abacked Yes | 1c | 3,236$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…9cb5backed Yes | 3c | 3,231$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…bd9bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,919$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -82%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,746$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1796…a893backed Yes | 1c | 2,498$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 1c | 2,458$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 1c | 2,387$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…d750backed Yes | 2c | 2,286$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 2c | 2,259$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 188 | 37.8%71 W · 117 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…eb7cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99ce…6007backed Yes | 2c | 1,999$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 1c | 1,936$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,775$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes | 2c | 1,769$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,714$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66eb…03d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf858…c83ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5f…21ecbacked Yes | 1c | 1,191$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa75…2d05backed Yes | 1c | 1,175$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…f481backed Yes | 1c | 1,098$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72db…af7dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,070$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf75…51debacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1754…2e79backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…3548backed Yes | 2c | 875$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 2c | 778.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbf…4828backed Yes | 3c | 774$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…ec2abacked Yes | 2c | 739$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…629cbacked Yes | 2c | 715.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da9…aa3bbacked Yes | 3c | 695$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b3…72aabacked Yes | 2c | 667$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…134cbacked Yes | 2c | 661$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0090…1cc8backed Yes | 2c | 647$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8546…a679backed Yes | 2c | 645$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc415…7c96backed Yes | 2c | 642$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46e8…8793backed Yes | 2c | 620.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 608$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3787…01febacked Yes | 2c | 576$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb360…5f0cbacked Yes | 3c | 569$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce2…62d0backed Yes | 2c | 566$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4e…2cf3backed Yes | 2c | 559$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf94b…c8adbacked Yes | 3c | 537$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2a…dcf1backed Yes | 3c | 531$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0db1backed Yes | 2c | 517$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce4a…10bebacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d05…1ccabacked Yes | 3c | 449$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes | 3c | 387.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series?this page
- Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?Yes won
- Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series?No won
- Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 World Series?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.