TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$230,761
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$230,519

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $230,761 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfaac…2e1fbacked No32c33,213$10,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,761.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfafd…51a2backed Yes68c33,213$22,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,761.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x610b…eb00backed No36c29,511$10,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,623.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c8b…e496backed Yes64c29,511$18,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,623.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed No0c10,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25320%0 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No7c6,591$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.781969.2%18 W · 178 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No25c5,941$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.912934.9%45 W · 84 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c2,706$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.96185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-91.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec0…87f3backed No36c2,062$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.571526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid+19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes77c1,870$1,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.469053.3%48 W · 42 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Yes74c1,856$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.993243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b92…046ebacked No7c1,658$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.76936.2%25 W · 44 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No22c1,481$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.0610334%35 W · 68 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No22c1,211$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.031752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1977…32e8backed No26c1,127$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.4819948.2%96 W · 103 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed Yes68c1,108$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.52450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c42…1f0ebacked Yes58c1,077$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc91f…e850backed Yes61c1,063$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.72560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed No22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020440.7%83 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5faf…27bbbacked Yes74c868.84$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.67857.7%45 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No31c710.44$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.861508%12 W · 138 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked No30c657.45$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.9817648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f9…84e6backed No14c650$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.264955.1%27 W · 22 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+10%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes78c599.04$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.377948.1%38 W · 41 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed Yes70c596$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.03742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No32c585.04$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.061526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked No13c558.16$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.654139%16 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes78c550$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.8413217.4%23 W · 109 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+104.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes44c546.67$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.0818629.6%55 W · 131 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed Yes54c495.41$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.118450%42 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd702…019cbacked No16c485.82$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No43c482.14$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.9641540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…2ae8backed No21c479.64$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51d6…d072backed Yes53c450$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e48…d8a4backed Yes66c430.5$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a3d…8322backed Yes78c407.65$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed No15c399.4$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No24c365.36$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.444551.1%23 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe87f…9d9bbacked Yes11c350$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.55028%14 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd5d…aefabacked Yes71c338.01$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.82650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe395…2a72backed No60c330$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.731637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-38.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x00c0…c91ebacked No11c329.74$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No21c325.85$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.855679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes78c300$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc68…47bdbacked Yes66c293.73$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.178100%8 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+52.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc4de…9b81backed Yes63c289.68$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd598…e859backed Yes7c284.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.481330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick18cpaid+174%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1547…d066backed Yes75c278.22$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.816100%6 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+108.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b6b…3ba7backed Yes77c260.46$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.465339.6%21 W · 32 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No23c237.63$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.83478.5%4 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-47%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d9…dd01backed Yes12c233.14$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.322835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ce9…9c2dbacked No9c224.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.451723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick12cpaid-25.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked No22c223.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012250%61 W · 61 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed Yes67c220.89$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.84337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No30c207.65$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.37825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes40c194.92$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+149.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa78e…890bbacked No22c189.33$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x401a…d730backed Yes57c188.48$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.731747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7364…d44ebacked Yes76c182.08$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.41683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Yes68c164.78$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5710434.6%36 W · 68 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes78c164.66$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8326830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5a6a…4846backed Yes79c161.24$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.18955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick69cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6997…c67cbacked No14c154$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes79c153.69$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.539947.5%47 W · 52 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c13…7b4bbacked Yes66c151.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee7…37f0backed Yes18c150.01$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.651060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+32.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9401…e9ffbacked No34c150$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick12cpaid+94.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked No14c150$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.154235.7%15 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7b76backed Yes76c144.61$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.294100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8e0…0fedbacked Yes68c144.55$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f2c…5c34backed Yes71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.851323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-53.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed Yes65c138.52$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.855556.4%31 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9171…a0c6backed Yes77c129.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.153821.1%8 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa74…4c14backed Yes77c128.41$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59db…c353backed Yes62c126.31$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.423125.8%8 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick25cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba95…908fbacked Yes63c125.21$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.261136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x100d…496abacked No29c121.77$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58b0…f9a8backed No28c117$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.841154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f79…fa7fbacked No22c114.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80c5…168abacked Yes36c111.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.87345.2%33 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a6a…6db6backed Yes68c111.71$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-57.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes73c103$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8529356%164 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x241f…ef50backed No31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-84.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7253…89edbacked Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8244…7a11backed No31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.951060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes73c97.9$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5131439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdafa…4d83backed No22c94.05$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff3…b24dbacked Yes69c89.98$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.66560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed No22c88.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes69c88$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.283148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47bf…096fbacked No22c81.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x793e…5e06backed Yes78c70.29$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x040f…0caabacked Yes70c70$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabbd…322ebacked Yes26c70$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+287.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc354…de11backed No76c70$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.43366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a59…e94cbacked Yes72c69.39$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.396550.8%33 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x154f…ad90backed Yes80c68.01$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfe…d12abacked No21c65.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9af…2904backed No22c65.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b36…17e5backed Yes80c63.74$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.