TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Aaron Rodgers retire?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$461,021
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$446,392

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $461,021 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd122…4e82backed Yes59c122,020$71,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,991.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa068…6b89backed No41c122,000$50,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,9801100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x23f1…e733backed No55c76,000$41,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,2001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d7…bc74backed Yes45c76,000$34,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,200425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c10,590$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.77320%0 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c4,036$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.25185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-91.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x241f…ef50backed Yes2c2,968$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.15911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-84.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1977…32e8backed Yes9c2,458$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.9419948.2%96 W · 103 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes2c2,068$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.761969.2%18 W · 178 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes26c1,866$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.524546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes6c1,362$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8612934.9%45 W · 84 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd86…f2dcbacked Yes4c1,037$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c42…1f0ebacked Yes12c1,000$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65b6…ab99backed Yes12c972.9$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No75c816.83$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.7831439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes2c776$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1718629.6%55 W · 131 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c8b…444bbacked Yes5c705.87$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.831136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f0c…862abacked Yes10c648.37$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.61421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-59.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes40c542.35$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.9415044.7%67 W · 83 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes17c503.01$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.647948.1%38 W · 41 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No70c398.79$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.0726830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xac61…f5f7backed Yes3c373.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.16837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Yes14c363.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502548%12 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd5d…aefabacked Yes21c323$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.55650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f6d…6b4ebacked Yes11c319.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-51.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed No52c264.23$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.6322838.6%88 W · 140 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c5…5417backed Yes6c256$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c227.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.365679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes29c220.03$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.257718.2%14 W · 63 L-11.0wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-43.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdd1c…e2d3backed No46c216.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.575662.5%35 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa13d…47f5backed Yes25c206$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee7…37f0backed No57c204.89$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.251060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+32.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Yes14c204.76$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.912031.7%38 W · 82 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b2c…cb50backed Yes19c200$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Yes30c197.46$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8d9…dd01backed Yes48c185.44$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.252835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98cb…aa35backed Yes43c185$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c7…de48backed No49c172.86$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.97850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed Yes7c171.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.54337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…ecfebacked Yes18c168.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes56c160.17$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.17131%22 W · 49 L-9.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-41.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes23c158.07$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.868837.5%33 W · 55 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f79…fa7fbacked Yes16c155.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed Yes17c150.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255556.4%31 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes14c146.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204533.3%15 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79a5…d08abacked Yes10c139$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f2…55c6backed No40c122.8$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+151.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75a0…45fdbacked No44c111.07$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x064a…0ee3backed Yes12c101$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e2…88bcbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201540%6 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…310cbacked No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+32.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54427.3%12 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes19c99.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.916913%9 W · 60 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d9…d32abacked Yes53c99.5$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.08862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes33c98.72$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.221508%12 W · 138 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x26c4…641bbacked Yes69c94.06$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc98c…02c6backed Yes57c91.49$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaec…634dbacked Yes59c83.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes42c80$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.21656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+46.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa80e…dfefbacked Yes66c79.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.82015%3 W · 17 L-6.3wins-0.32per pick47cpaid-71.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xa7af…fddfbacked Yes61c79.35$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a9a…8185backed No57c77.98$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781f…6763backed Yes43c75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5880%0 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7716…1938backed No41c66.83$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.43540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6176…9682backed No52c58.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb19…f163backed Yes46c56.7$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No73c54.4$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.738037.5%30 W · 50 L-10.4wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-27.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4696…6a7dbacked Yes20c54.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1140%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91d3…3ee8backed No48c50.73$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf40…c6c2backed Yes55c50.07$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd1…f095backed No48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+30.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-42.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a6d…72b3backed No41c43.69$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes43c43.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x724c…c55ebacked Yes60c40.34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe38f…504cbacked Yes62c40.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed Yes41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb208…d68dbacked No60c39.68$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.874100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+88%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26de…dd82backed Yes65c38.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa783…2603backed No41c36.96$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9459…fbcbbacked No34c36.72$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+193.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ceb…57a2backed Yes55c36.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fa9…d31cbacked No48c35.23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.212100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb491…9917backed Yes57c34.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4c0…8953backed No45c33.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+120.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74fc…6644backed No38c33.15$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+161.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f2b…439dbacked No52c32.74$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+90.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbced…4871backed No47c32.63$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa234…7da2backed Yes61c30.34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa331…3129backed Yes59c29.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc23e…9e2dbacked Yes53c28.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb28e…6e05backed Yes57c27.83$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5861…d869backed No46c26.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2455…3421backed No43c26.26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe267…53a9backed Yes58c26.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8229…8584backed Yes67c24.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a5f…ffb7backed No59c24.28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c8…8af0backed Yes55c24.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb790…37cdbacked No43c23.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+134.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2294…e158backed Yes65c23.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.