NFL · resolved market
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Las Vegas Raiders?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e7d3b8a2d6c2ab1704ce82f4dcae90ca57004ed45c5b0dea359fd8a802a9b5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 6 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 18,239$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 2c | 754.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…6790backed Yes | 6c | 244$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf56…c17fbacked Yes | 9c | 197.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d46…bfb6backed Yes | 6c | 164.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…dc61backed Yes | 16c | 129.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Las Vegas Raiders?this page
- Will Aaron Rodgers retire?No won
- Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Indianapolis Colts?No won
- Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Los Angeles Rams?No won
- Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings?No won
- Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the New York Giants?No won
- Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers?Yes won
- Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the San Francisco 49ers?No won
- Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.