NFL · resolved market
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc3fc5b3aaf074a4189b8430b127118cca0dedc0b6ee64ff5ef0eae246644aa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 4,047$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…9c2dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,794$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.01 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 3c | 2,799$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 129 | 34.9%45 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…bd4dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,437$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 5c | 1,382$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,349$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 11c | 1,296$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.36 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 3c | 1,107$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 1c | 1,027$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Yes | 25c | 949.25$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.64 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -7.0wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -48%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 3c | 832.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 625.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91f…e850backed Yes | 5c | 605.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 596.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…e9ffbacked Yes | 12c | 549.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 12cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…7599backed Yes | 4c | 513.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d55…9280backed Yes | 3c | 495$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…b24dbacked Yes | 6c | 443.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 442.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…5739backed Yes | 24c | 422.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…0d33backed Yes | 6c | 416$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff6…9797backed Yes | 6c | 353$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 311.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 301.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6525…aa83backed Yes | 6c | 289$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 17c | 271.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x405c…f2a2backed Yes | 6c | 248$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…8189backed Yes | 10c | 247.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a77…6d5bbacked Yes | 11c | 222.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf905…3696backed Yes | 6c | 209$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa13d…47f5backed Yes | 9c | 183.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe89a…825abacked Yes | 6c | 181$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…6ea3backed Yes | 6c | 171$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8b…444bbacked Yes | 14c | 170.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bda…b680backed Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 6c | 160.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 19c | 152$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 9c | 131.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…2b2abacked Yes | 8c | 127.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 14c | 126.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +630%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed No | 80c | 35.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings?this page
- Will Aaron Rodgers retire?No won
- Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Indianapolis Colts?No won
- Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Las Vegas Raiders?No won
- Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Los Angeles Rams?No won
- Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the New York Giants?No won
- Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers?Yes won
- Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the San Francisco 49ers?No won
- Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.