TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the New York Giants?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,291,280
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$247,169

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,291,280 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 320 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x45d7…bc74backed Yes7c82,000$5,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,740425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a41…4bf7backed Yes1c14,834$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d08…1d5dbacked Yes1c14,753$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02bf…2e68backed Yes1c14,506$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ccb…689bbacked Yes1c14,480$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87a9…5f79backed Yes1c14,418$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe832…7a7bbacked Yes1c14,406$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6137…a766backed Yes1c14,376$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1166…0948backed Yes1c14,347$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0e7…2d91backed Yes1c14,279$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3872…0b4bbacked Yes1c14,279$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8afc…8b97backed Yes1c14,230$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8416…752ebacked Yes1c14,206$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffb8…41c6backed Yes1c14,199$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf727…542ebacked Yes1c14,173$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a06…258abacked Yes1c14,050$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e5e…4055backed Yes1c14,046$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedae…48febacked Yes1c14,046$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb35d…03d0backed Yes1c14,043$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5fc…c7ffbacked Yes1c14,026$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b0c…0112backed Yes1c14,013$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cd1…1d97backed Yes1c13,984$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9835…b189backed Yes1c13,957$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1c…1c62backed Yes1c13,956$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc73…ec27backed Yes1c13,934$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0a5…c176backed Yes1c13,930$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfa5…0e48backed Yes1c13,913$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x674b…5873backed Yes1c13,907$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f3…a22dbacked Yes1c13,904$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3135…d4ddbacked Yes1c13,900$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa16a…7bf3backed Yes1c13,897$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9145…f9e6backed Yes1c13,890$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7458…93d8backed Yes1c13,886$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa42e…051fbacked Yes1c13,881$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18b6…a000backed Yes1c13,863$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbef0…8157backed Yes1c13,857$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6eb…054dbacked Yes1c13,847$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc7e…8043backed Yes1c13,827$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd7d…5ab6backed Yes1c13,823$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bcf…f19cbacked Yes1c13,816$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a0e…d1b5backed Yes1c13,811$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c0f…d46ebacked Yes1c13,810$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd789…4341backed Yes1c13,800$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b55…cde3backed Yes1c13,791$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09de…c134backed Yes1c13,787$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6184…e467backed Yes1c13,774$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xced5…8b9cbacked Yes1c13,770$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9a8…35c2backed Yes1c13,769$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0248…85dfbacked Yes1c13,757$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf345…8548backed Yes1c13,747$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9800…03dfbacked Yes1c13,740$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x859f…d23dbacked Yes1c13,721$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f57…2d30backed Yes1c13,719$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c9…0ffdbacked Yes1c13,707$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb92a…f36abacked Yes1c13,694$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd112…f86abacked Yes1c13,671$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecde…ef0cbacked Yes1c13,667$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fe5…f116backed Yes1c13,661$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f2…2c50backed Yes1c13,653$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e79…4c4dbacked Yes1c13,643$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe811…c061backed Yes1c13,640$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d81…7616backed Yes1c13,630$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f38…e3b6backed Yes1c13,611$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5499…d380backed Yes1c13,606$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c48…c460backed Yes1c13,596$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd50d…ffbfbacked Yes1c13,589$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46e9…8cf7backed Yes1c13,583$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea3c…68f9backed Yes1c13,580$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42d1…76b6backed Yes1c13,549$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf313…5eaabacked Yes1c13,509$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8769…f5f5backed Yes1c13,483$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733f…08d3backed Yes1c13,480$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4631…7f13backed Yes1c13,396$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b84…8b69backed Yes1c13,364$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc17c…600abacked Yes1c13,346$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee99…643bbacked Yes1c13,329$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ab…3915backed Yes1c13,324$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ed…ec66backed Yes1c13,320$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cc9…0cccbacked Yes1c13,249$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc26…3273backed Yes1c13,237$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cf2…8d66backed Yes1c13,090$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea7…11dbbacked Yes1c12,993$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c10,108$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.811061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Yes0c8,370$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7412954.3%70 W · 59 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87b5…62e8backed Yes1c7,379$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x746e…6838backed Yes1c7,373$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2894…41aebacked Yes1c7,364$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac54…0c48backed Yes1c7,358$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf140…3c2abacked Yes1c7,319$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fad…3c25backed Yes1c7,317$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeff3…dc2abacked Yes1c7,310$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceef…6df9backed Yes1c7,303$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfae9…1626backed Yes1c7,281$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf802…e922backed Yes1c7,276$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05a…36f7backed Yes1c7,243$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78cd…2553backed Yes1c7,233$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6d2…9421backed Yes1c7,231$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe28b…7d87backed Yes1c7,208$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8369…ac91backed Yes1c7,191$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6108…ccfebacked Yes1c7,186$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.