NFL · resolved market

Will the Packers win the NFC Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a0debc740123978f634f330d0ab3c4b19c40e1b910b34929fe128b8fe1f7bcc

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 11, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $139,539
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $135,299

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,539 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes	11c	18,592$2,045 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,045.17	129	34.9%45 W · 84 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Yes	10c	5,532$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.24	312	40.7%127 W · 185 L	-22.0wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	4,535$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.7	567	9.9%56 W · 511 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf98…0554backed Yes	6c	2,747$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.83	30	20%6 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe87f…9d9bbacked Yes	11c	2,617$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	50	28%14 W · 36 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf961…62bbbacked Yes	8c	2,565$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.27	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x929c…fe32backed Yes	12c	2,500$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	52	23.1%12 W · 40 L	-4.0wins	-0.08per pick	31cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes	17c	2,407$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.5	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-63.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ea…e15cbacked Yes	9c	2,159$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5faf…27bbbacked Yes	14c	1,948$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.83	78	57.7%45 W · 33 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed No	79c	1,930$1,525 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$405.14	224	34.4%77 W · 147 L	+8.4wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes	9c	1,851$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.07	162	26.5%43 W · 119 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa161…86fdbacked Yes	13c	1,547$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Yes	7c	1,504$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.83	120	31.7%38 W · 82 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cab…6817backed Yes	20c	1,500$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	122	40.2%49 W · 73 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-12%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes	1c	1,471$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.71	149	26.2%39 W · 110 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes	6c	1,392$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.9	294	39.5%116 W · 178 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed Yes	6c	1,297$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.83	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes	25c	1,199$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.84	477	38.6%184 W · 293 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes	7c	1,176$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.32	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed Yes	7c	1,122$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.2	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa35a…2157backed Yes	11c	1,074$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.37	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.23per pick	40cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	4c	1,038$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.95	47	12.8%6 W · 41 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes	8c	1,001$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.11	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-77.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5d9…efaebacked Yes	5c	998.45$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes	5c	958$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.9	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes	6c	930$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.8	684	46.1%315 W · 369 L	+16.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	5c	908.22$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.93	61	1.6%1 W · 60 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-95.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes	14c	743.16$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.84	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes	4c	714.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.6	39	23.1%9 W · 30 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No	80c	700$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140	72	41.7%30 W · 42 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ec1…bfa6backed Yes	7c	699.99$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes	7c	690.17$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.31	176	9.1%16 W · 160 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-43%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc03…1548backed Yes	17c	614$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.62	66	24.2%16 W · 50 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	+81.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c05…36b3backed Yes	19c	604.73$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.99	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes	7c	578$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.46	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+3.3wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes	23c	563$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.09	202	38.6%78 W · 124 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2873…7af4backed Yes	8c	546.65$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.73	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-53%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	7c	511.1$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.56	230	24.3%56 W · 174 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc7e…06a2backed Yes	16c	500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-2.8wins	-0.22per pick	37cpaid	-71.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	46	32.6%15 W · 31 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bec…f7b7backed Yes	2c	484.5$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.25per pick	25cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x724d…8deabacked Yes	5c	451.73$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.37	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-78.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	6c	410$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.25	79	10.1%8 W · 71 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Yes	21c	400$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	183	36.1%66 W · 117 L	-5.8wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes	6c	385.52$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.91	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	6c	345.42$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.58	212	27.8%59 W · 153 L	+10.6wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes	8c	301$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.75	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed Yes	23c	300$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	90	45.6%41 W · 49 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42e2…4d16backed Yes	15c	290.34$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.6	52	30.8%16 W · 36 L	+5.2wins	+0.10per pick	21cpaid	+85.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4344…caefbacked Yes	6c	248.83$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.93	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes	12c	226.45$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.99	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes	6c	225.16$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2509…d195backed Yes	24c	208$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	9c	200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	37	0%0 W · 37 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	6c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	188.23$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.47	368	26.9%99 W · 269 L	-17.1wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes	6c	184.98$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-81%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb9…2120backed Yes	11c	174.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20a2…cdeebacked Yes	8c	168.5$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…6afdbacked Yes	13c	154.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84cc…d8b3backed Yes	20c	133.5$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.7	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf36…94e8backed Yes	24c	100$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	74	43.2%32 W · 42 L	-7.4wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x46ed…cfa6backed Yes	22c	100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	122	50%61 W · 61 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	17c	91$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.62	58	24.1%14 W · 44 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1bb…c285backed Yes	16c	63.75$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	56	58.9%33 W · 23 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x655d…abfebacked Yes	20c	63.46$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.73	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+2.1wins	+0.29per pick	56cpaid	+66.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed No	77c	60$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.95	79	38%30 W · 49 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c48…8c48backed Yes	17c	60$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the Packers win the NFC Championship?this page
Will the 49ers win the 2026 NFC Championship?No won
Will the Bears win the NFC Championship?No won
Will the Buccaneers win the 2026 NFC Championship?No won
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship?No won
Will the Commanders win the 2026 NFC Championship?No won
Will the Cowboys win the NFC Championship?No won
Will the Eagles win the 2026 NFC Championship?No won
Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship?No won
Will the Giants win the 2026 NFC Championship?No won
Will the Lions win the NFC Championship?No won
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship?No won
Will the Rams win the NFC Championship?No won
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship?No won
Will the Seahawks win the 2026 NFC Championship?Yes won
Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the Packers win the NFC Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event