NFL · resolved market
Will the Commanders win the 2026 NFC Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26c5d50359edb889919825594d25346a54401042b92e766dfcf63925bb2db022
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 1c | 5,828$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Yes | 10c | 5,759$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.88 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Yes | 9c | 5,100$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 11c | 1,834$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.23 | 132 | 17.4%23 W · 109 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 10c | 1,336$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.58 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 7c | 624.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 6c | 606.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…4529backed Yes | 9c | 499.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 245$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 6c | 230.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a97…cf3abacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…8af4backed Yes | 9c | 176$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 12c | 162.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 8c | 135.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…9d64backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 90.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Commanders win the 2026 NFC Championship?this page
- Will the 49ers win the 2026 NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Bears win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Buccaneers win the 2026 NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Cowboys win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Eagles win the 2026 NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Giants win the 2026 NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Lions win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Packers win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Rams win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Saints win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Seahawks win the 2026 NFC Championship?Yes won
- Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.