NFL · resolved market
Will the Lions win the NFC Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x392b41c9b513ca90d11687a48c832d72e1b417974801b761f8bc95ba2f53f425
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5da9…f4e6backed Yes | 20c | 17,500$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 21c | 6,445$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.29 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0485…1557backed No | 80c | 6,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…0ff6backed No | 80c | 5,900$4,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Yes | 2c | 5,861$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 124 | 47.6%59 W · 65 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca18…cbf2backed No | 80c | 5,600$4,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 13c | 5,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,473$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Yes | 7c | 4,352$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.65 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c05…36b3backed Yes | 19c | 4,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.15 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 16c | 3,912$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.78 | 176 | 9.1%16 W · 160 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 3,852$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8210…b328backed Yes | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked Yes | 7c | 2,917$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa54…c182backed Yes | 17c | 2,733$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.28 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,653$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.15 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Yes | 22c | 2,486$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.95 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Yes | 14c | 2,115$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.96 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 18c | 1,800$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.96 | 132 | 17.4%23 W · 109 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 13c | 1,500$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 13c | 1,027$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.65 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 16c | 985.3$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.65 | 162 | 26.5%43 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 78c | 976.61$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.66 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a65…280dbacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…c9b4backed Yes | 12c | 833$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 181 | 40.9%74 W · 107 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 20c | 800$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.01 | 183 | 36.1%66 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0a…c378backed Yes | 3c | 799.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac29…fa88backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…1548backed Yes | 5c | 617$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd12…da1abacked Yes | 3c | 608.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 13c | 599$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.64 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…8b54backed Yes | 20c | 550.94$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 13c | 481$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 76c | 374$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…4d16backed Yes | 19c | 352.26$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked Yes | 13c | 344.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 10c | 307$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 9c | 302$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…c212backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…caefbacked Yes | 15c | 230.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 75c | 211.01$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 14c | 199.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 184.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 20c | 167.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked No | 74c | 125$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 116.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa835…b8dbbacked Yes | 22c | 116.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes | 19c | 105.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…2ae0backed Yes | 24c | 104.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3b…aea3backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8aa…6eb3backed Yes | 15c | 97.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…83a4backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 79c | 78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 16c | 73.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…71aabacked Yes | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e7…cdc7backed No | 78c | 51.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Lions win the NFC Championship?this page
- Will the 49ers win the 2026 NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Bears win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Buccaneers win the 2026 NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Commanders win the 2026 NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Cowboys win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Eagles win the 2026 NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Giants win the 2026 NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Packers win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Rams win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Saints win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Seahawks win the 2026 NFC Championship?Yes won
- Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.