TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$489,999
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$298,485

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $489,999 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c72,188$333 inLost-$333.21769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56e3…9d50backed Yes0c49,980$50 inLost-$49.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes1c16,915$85 inLost-$85.07734.1%3 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick4cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b0a…c378backed Yes2c14,866$282 inLost-$282.031241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb238…5b0fbacked Yes1c9,082$64 inLost-$63.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c7,054$14 inLost-$13.975679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7b0…9fb0backed Yes1c6,857$48 inLost-$482540%10 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf3a…e41fbacked Yes1c6,013$35 inLost-$35.0630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c5,250$30 inLost-$29.69611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-95.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b26…9bc4backed Yes1c5,013$25 inLost-$25.063823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+77.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddc0…a8a0backed Yes4c4,633$200 inLost-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes1c3,770$22 inLost-$21.6516226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb73a…542cbacked Yes1c3,571$25 inLost-$2570%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73da…1953backed Yes2c3,503$70 inLost-$701643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes0c3,127$15 inLost-$14.9921227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc03…1548backed Yes1c2,629$13 inLost-$13.156624.2%16 W · 50 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+81.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes3c2,558$72 inLost-$72.2513217.4%23 W · 109 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+104.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes1c2,553$18 inLost-$17.8722434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes2c2,222$42 inLost-$42.161010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-47.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes1c1,779$23 inLost-$23.36911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-81%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed Yes1c1,552$11 inLost-$10.871811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-63.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes1c1,435$13 inLost-$12.92175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+110.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c1,008$11 inLost-$11.2223024.3%56 W · 174 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc31…971fbacked Yes2c999.98$15 inLost-$1514750.3%74 W · 73 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc42f…f19cbacked Yes2c974$17 inLost-$16.8550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d65…0143backed Yes2c926.87$15 inLost-$15425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes2c711.65$14 inLost-$14.231520%3 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-37.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x724d…8deabacked Yes2c600$10 inLost-$10.462814.3%4 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-78.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes3c444.05$13 inLost-$133023.3%7 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.