Movies · resolved market
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $78m and $85m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7d4562d9bce65476efeb1fc413147b8a999811fd306d966ded7529c1ef0ff70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $219,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $237,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 61c | 29,228$17,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,388.95 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 56c | 27,457$15,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,380.98 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 51c | 12,798$6,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,266.84 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 51c | 11,478$5,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,653.06 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 25c | 11,449$2,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,571.95 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked No | 30c | 11,270$3,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,338.71 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6413…130dbacked Yes | 68c | 8,774$6,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,765.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 21c | 6,584$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,175.84 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 55c | 6,463$3,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,919.88 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 68c | 6,291$4,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.34 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x365e…0bfcbacked Yes | 41c | 5,330$2,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,171 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -81%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 16c | 5,000$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,190 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…6df2backed Yes | 60c | 4,628$2,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.79 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 55c | 2,743$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.77 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 58c | 2,648$1,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.91 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 35c | 2,495$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625.63 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 13c | 2,488$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,169.78 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9968…a104backed Yes | 70c | 2,068$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa5…e358backed Yes | 45c | 1,895$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 65c | 1,657$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.81 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 3c | 1,599$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…33c6backed Yes | 75c | 1,492$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 25c | 1,122$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…5eddbacked Yes | 48c | 1,035$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.94 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed Yes | 23c | 758.59$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +341.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 47c | 720$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.9 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 67c | 696.45$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.14 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 58c | 678$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 46c | 669.6$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.99 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfe…7190backed Yes | 60c | 646.36$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 72c | 602.06$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…4107backed Yes | 35c | 569.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +184.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 65c | 562.05$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.05 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 63c | 550$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.9 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 29c | 549.89$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.1 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 10c | 510$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 71c | 493.83$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.49 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 64c | 469.28$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.06 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 66c | 459.91$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.13 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…18a1backed No | 51c | 450.36$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed No | 24c | 414.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…549abacked Yes | 65c | 411.86$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2067…605dbacked Yes | 75c | 372.8$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 19c | 370.85$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab0…1317backed Yes | 28c | 354.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 31c | 341.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.43 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked Yes | 47c | 341.12$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.28 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…eddbbacked Yes | 66c | 329.85$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 46c | 322.87$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.54 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 55c | 311.69$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.39 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 32c | 302.45$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.53 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed Yes | 75c | 281.09$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 64c | 280$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 54c | 265.85$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.75 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 41c | 261.61$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.14 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…6faebacked Yes | 80c | 259.78$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 21c | 240.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.34 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fc…f3c8backed Yes | 69c | 218.68$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed1b…4c23backed Yes | 52c | 214.63$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 208.21$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.01 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…8c8ebacked Yes | 80c | 201.37$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 19cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…3ef7backed No | 77c | 199.59$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 78c | 193.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.86 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 184$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.16 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd02d…17e8backed Yes | 74c | 180$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 46c | 179$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 36c | 170$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.6 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…e4debacked Yes | 36c | 168.77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.49 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 48c | 167.74$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…9646backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 46c | 165.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 32c | 156.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.54 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 150.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.67 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a4…c98fbacked Yes | 61c | 148.6$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 70c | 137.79$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b9…f055backed Yes | 24c | 130$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 128.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.22 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e75…71f1backed Yes | 71c | 128.95$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c0…a976backed No | 79c | 125.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 25c | 121$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.83 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bec…56d0backed Yes | 54c | 112.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…bfefbacked Yes | 60c | 104$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +144.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…9b0dbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f14…68c5backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.41 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7295…fc62backed Yes | 60c | 84.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa3…bb15backed Yes | 74c | 83.77$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 68c | 81.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…796abacked No | 38c | 76.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $78m and $85m?this page
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $85m and $92m?No won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $92m and $99m?No won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $78m?No won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $99m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.