Movies · resolved market
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $85m and $92m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5878c88da4332aa4b1f61d907d59b5aba809947b1213007469240ef1ba7ae1cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 52c | 19,157$10,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,002.36 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 18c | 12,655$2,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,237.34 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 43c | 12,294$5,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,004.7 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 3c | 11,861$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.15 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes | 26c | 6,341$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.13 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 28c | 4,134$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.05 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 23c | 3,160$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.58 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 9c | 3,152$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…6df2backed No | 59c | 2,611$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.08 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 63c | 2,602$1,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.07 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 45c | 2,561$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.82 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 17c | 1,745$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.78 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 15c | 1,693$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.19 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 68c | 1,664$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.9 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd303…9c76backed Yes | 65c | 1,642$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 50c | 1,477$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.59 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa5…e358backed No | 32c | 1,395$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 15c | 1,376$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.67 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 74c | 1,155$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 1,045$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.46 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33b2…3d6fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 41c | 888.72$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.32 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 36c | 677.73$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.97 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 5c | 676$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…33c6backed Yes | 74c | 612.39$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 17c | 572.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 56c | 511$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.16 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 29c | 482.64$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.15 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…18a1backed No | 76c | 466.69$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 17c | 443$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 23c | 377.73$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed No | 80c | 374.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 13c | 374.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 51c | 370.63$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.16 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 24c | 344.91$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 77c | 342$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 336.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 36c | 322.87$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.76 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 27c | 321.72$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…f67bbacked No | 63c | 319.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 67c | 314.36$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.88 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 297.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…ea41backed Yes | 74c | 271$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 64c | 264.43$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.17 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 31c | 263.32$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.66 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 67c | 255$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.92 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 59c | 230.68$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.91 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd02d…17e8backed No | 76c | 221.4$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 22c | 211.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked Yes | 53c | 205$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed Yes | 53c | 199.39$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e75…71f1backed Yes | 34c | 181.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…62b1backed Yes | 8c | 176.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 17c | 160$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 22c | 142.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 18c | 135.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61b…ade8backed Yes | 20c | 135$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ff…c3bfbacked Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 68c | 117.04$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked Yes | 20c | 114.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed No | 43c | 111.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b9…f055backed Yes | 13c | 111.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Yes | 21c | 106.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…3ef7backed Yes | 53c | 105$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…6582backed Yes | 10c | 102.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked Yes | 50c | 100.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…e4debacked No | 50c | 100.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 19cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…a863backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb088…3862backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…0ee5backed Yes | 71c | 99.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 76c | 97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae7…64a5backed Yes | 16c | 92.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdb…e7f7backed Yes | 25c | 91.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…a0efbacked Yes | 38c | 88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…8145backed Yes | 22c | 87.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 66c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 20c | 78.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 18c | 76.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f1…9adfbacked Yes | 70c | 59.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01f…5240backed Yes | 45c | 55.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb6…140fbacked Yes | 24c | 51.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af3…75ebbacked Yes | 71c | 50.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…1399backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ad…fd50backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2674…dc91backed No | 63c | 46.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 35c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.34per pick | 53cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9041…71dbbacked Yes | 46c | 43.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…c908backed Yes | 48c | 38.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 66c | 36.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $85m and $92m?this page
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $78m and $85m?Yes won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $92m and $99m?No won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $78m?No won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $99m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.