Movies · resolved market
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $78m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd54dc98131bdb489c0bf13e6891d7f58397e1874e1f876030a3c93354469b712
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $209,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 8c | 31,949$2,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,684.69 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…d6d9backed Yes | 0c | 23,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed No | 49c | 15,606$7,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,894.81 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa5…e358backed Yes | 0c | 12,385$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 2c | 11,106$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.17 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 23c | 10,000$2,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320.9 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 4c | 9,716$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 46c | 8,510$3,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,921.64 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 4,902$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 76c | 3,616$2,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.53 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 54c | 3,233$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755.25 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 49c | 3,159$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.59 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 80c | 2,222$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed No | 64c | 1,876$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.65 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 3c | 1,861$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 68c | 1,700$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365e…0bfcbacked Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -81%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 9c | 1,321$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.35 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf41…f161backed Yes | 2c | 1,248$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed No | 54c | 1,168$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.84 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c3…bd0ebacked No | 54c | 1,122$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 1,120$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.6 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…6582backed Yes | 2c | 1,038$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 47c | 852.32$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.1 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 12c | 600.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 44c | 555$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.2 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 46c | 537$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 74c | 491.99$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.38 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…5ec5backed Yes | 42c | 488.76$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes | 20c | 440.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 50c | 426.37$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.87 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 12c | 421.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 47c | 367.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.96 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…3deabacked No | 56c | 364.3$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 53c | 337.39$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.29 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 15c | 325.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 49c | 300$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.28 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 43c | 281.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.46 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes | 46c | 273$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.28 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 257$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…f56cbacked Yes | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Yes | 44c | 227.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…d1a3backed Yes | 9c | 226.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 53c | 224.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 44c | 216.26$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.56 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 48c | 209.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 74c | 196.99$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b9…f055backed Yes | 11c | 181.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked Yes | 20c | 181.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb09a…3271backed Yes | 46c | 175.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…3d26backed No | 56c | 161.28$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 55c | 161.07$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 35c | 95.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…c90bbacked No | 57c | 88.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 45c | 79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61a4…c98fbacked No | 78c | 77.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…e4debacked No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee04…c22bbacked Yes | 48c | 55.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…63b9backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 56c | 48.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…f1c9backed No | 58c | 34.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.34per pick | 53cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6853…da0dbacked No | 64c | 25.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked No | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 47c | 22.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0813…c357backed No | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $78m?this page
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $78m and $85m?Yes won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $85m and $92m?No won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $92m and $99m?No won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $99m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.