Movies · resolved market
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $99m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x839cea52481abf193d3fdd6e2a6d4490ea805a635a703b413c02674964a5a911
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $293,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $209,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5659…4540backed Yes | 0c | 32,192$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9728…8a5abacked Yes | 3c | 23,632$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…62b1backed Yes | 0c | 22,552$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 13,009$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 12,533$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.66 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa5…e358backed Yes | 2c | 8,281$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 0c | 8,037$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…0c17backed Yes | 5c | 6,028$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec63…85ddbacked Yes | 2c | 5,608$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 5,301$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 7c | 4,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7891…385dbacked Yes | 8c | 3,559$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,049$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7530…f7a0backed Yes | 1c | 3,047$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 8c | 3,010$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 3c | 2,086$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,075$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdb…e7f7backed Yes | 2c | 1,832$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 1c | 1,592$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365e…0bfcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,499$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -81%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 1c | 1,453$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7434…e58bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,434$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,276$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2263…4e26backed Yes | 2c | 1,239$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,194$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…9019backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…d1a3backed Yes | 3c | 955.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 922.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 3c | 899.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87dc…2afdbacked Yes | 1c | 762$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Yes | 7c | 628$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…020cbacked Yes | 3c | 599.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Yes | 2c | 571.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 511.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed Yes | 3c | 497.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 5c | 476.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…ddcabacked Yes | 8c | 384.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 7c | 364.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Yes | 15c | 162.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $99m?this page
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $78m and $85m?Yes won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $85m and $92m?No won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $92m and $99m?No won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $78m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.