Movies · resolved market
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $92m and $99m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ce31f29d12af95134de850090cbac1b3a781e5b8e46af2a6de9cfbf36d9976a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $229,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $183,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 3c | 33,536$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.79 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 18,115$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…4540backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 8,679$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.81 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 1c | 8,617$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 8c | 8,000$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 4c | 6,183$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.18 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 2c | 5,318$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…020cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,280$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf61b…ade8backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…d1a3backed Yes | 2c | 2,671$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 5c | 2,527$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.13 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365e…0bfcbacked Yes | 6c | 2,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -81%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…62b1backed Yes | 1c | 2,343$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 7c | 2,141$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.9 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 9c | 2,050$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 2,042$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.84 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec63…85ddbacked Yes | 12c | 1,700$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaccf…a244backed Yes | 1c | 1,680$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa5…e358backed Yes | 12c | 1,595$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…4325backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7891…385dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,477$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 4c | 1,132$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7434…e58bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,119$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff5…60abbacked Yes | 2c | 1,054$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 15c | 1,015$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.48 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked Yes | 1c | 1,001$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…e4debacked Yes | 13c | 945.6$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.41 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…0c17backed Yes | 6c | 844.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 7c | 801.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…63b9backed Yes | 8c | 729.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 7c | 652.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 2c | 602$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 10c | 543.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdb…e7f7backed Yes | 5c | 516.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…9019backed Yes | 7c | 490$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 8c | 447.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 12c | 420.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 9c | 395.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 335.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…33e9backed Yes | 9c | 326.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 8c | 320$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 6c | 310.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 18c | 280$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…502cbacked Yes | 11c | 233.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd671…9182backed Yes | 12c | 211.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9579…2833backed Yes | 8c | 208.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…321abacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Yes | 13c | 189.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Yes | 11c | 169.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 152$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2263…4e26backed Yes | 13c | 150.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 8c | 138.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed Yes | 9c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b9…f055backed Yes | 15c | 87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $92m and $99m?this page
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $78m and $85m?Yes won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $85m and $92m?No won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $78m?No won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $99m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.