F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x340e6afa766aab4ee75969ccad9a8aa18a8237e1ad2615efb19895b21eacf84a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 6c | 11,410$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.06 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 39c | 7,626$2,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,995.21 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes | 13c | 7,500$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 6c | 2,697$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.1 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 38c | 2,577$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 43c | 1,810$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.21 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 23c | 1,600$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…c86dbacked Yes | 40c | 1,500$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 57c | 910$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.38 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2130…b64dbacked No | 61c | 842.74$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.6 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…a9d8backed Yes | 40c | 726$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked No | 60c | 690$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes | 40c | 690$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 58c | 642.7$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.4 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 122 | 46.7%57 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 12c | 530$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe5…0309backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…03a0backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 62c | 483.77$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.69 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 42c | 441.33$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 4c | 423.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef7d…5e3fbacked Yes | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 61c | 395.13$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.1 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…6768backed Yes | 16c | 383.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e8…9c65backed No | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 11c | 323.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 298.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 14c | 297.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -70%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccce…2c7cbacked No | 56c | 255.73$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 42c | 243.64$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.04 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 39c | 238$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.94 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 77c | 189.55$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Yes | 41c | 185.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 39c | 161.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 56c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 20c | 142.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…3b2fbacked Yes | 40c | 141.93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc879…94d7backed Yes | 38c | 140$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked No | 56c | 138.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…564ebacked Yes | 44c | 135.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 60c | 130$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43e…aef5backed No | 61c | 100.65$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc9…92aabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f4…7700backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…c88fbacked No | 57c | 84.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…c787backed Yes | 41c | 77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d4…84a1backed Yes | 37c | 64.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d71…6945backed Yes | 40c | 55.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed No | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…6edbbacked Yes | 44c | 45.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 63c | 41.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83f2…85babacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…9c72backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…4b78backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…1935backed No | 59c | 25.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1988…3d18backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa866…6c77backed No | 66c | 19.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?this page
- Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?No won
- Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?No won
- Will Isack Hadjar win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lance Stroll win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?No won
- Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oliver Bearman win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.