TailMyPicks
Market

F1 · resolved market

Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
F1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,574
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,747

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,574 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in F1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes6c11,410$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.065521.8%12 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes39c7,626$2,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,995.215733.3%19 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes13c7,500$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9757433.8%25 W · 49 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes6c2,697$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.18939.3%35 W · 54 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes38c2,577$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.81747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes43c1,810$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.211612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-76.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes23c1,600$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36920843.3%90 W · 118 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+22.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa6…c86dbacked Yes40c1,500$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5951060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39012523.2%29 W · 96 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8015932.7%52 W · 107 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-25.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No57c910$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.386633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2130…b64dbacked No61c842.74$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.62236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad0…a9d8backed Yes40c726$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.09933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x024a…decbbacked No60c690$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2761637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes40c690$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed No58c642.7$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.4137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick25cpaid-86.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Yes12c600$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7212246.7%57 W · 65 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x904f…50c6backed Yes12c530$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.315922%35 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe5…0309backed Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick24cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e60…b440backed Yes4c500$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6712419.4%24 W · 100 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fcd…03a0backed Yes13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked No62c483.77$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.692766.7%18 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes42c441.33$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.751346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed Yes4c423.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.75616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef7d…5e3fbacked Yes38c400$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes39c400$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1565137.3%19 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No61c395.13$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.112353.7%66 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7329…6768backed Yes16c383.81$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60498.2%4 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+63.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09e8…9c65backed No59c338.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Yes11c323.62$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6614356.6%81 W · 62 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9912646.8%59 W · 67 L+10.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c298.92$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0312325.2%31 W · 92 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed Yes14c297.74$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.48128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-70%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccce…2c7cbacked No56c255.73$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.52633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-43.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes42c243.64$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0412616.7%21 W · 105 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes39c238$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.942951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No77c189.55$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.372259.1%13 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Yes41c185.18$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753321.2%7 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes39c161.4$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.546835.3%24 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.294827.1%13 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No56c150$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.77028.6%20 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-54.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes20c142.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.762040%8 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffc5…3b2fbacked Yes40c141.93$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.772958.6%17 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc879…94d7backed Yes38c140$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+28.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked No56c138.74$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.432445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x46d2…564ebacked Yes44c135.56$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601010%1 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick31cpaid-79.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed No60c130$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526845.6%31 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.52433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa43e…aef5backed No61c100.65$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.051258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc9…92aabacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08f4…7700backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38c7…c88fbacked No57c84.21$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.211241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e13…c787backed Yes41c77$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d4…84a1backed Yes37c64.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.793259.4%19 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d71…6945backed Yes40c55.54$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.56827.9%19 W · 49 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+19.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203537.1%13 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.510051%51 W · 49 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec2c…1b20backed No62c48.39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.394431.8%14 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb501…6edbbacked Yes44c45.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8803…eb1dbacked No63c41.82$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.47366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x83f2…85babacked Yes42c35.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa924…9c72backed No57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.092828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1c3…4b78backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes41c26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.663766.9%26 W · 350 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb41a…1935backed No59c25.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1988…3d18backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb18…6ed0backed No62c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.983100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa866…6c77backed No66c19.7$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.