Music · resolved market
Will Innsbruck host Eurovision 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x617a219535df2501d307f35da8c5e1379f96d8fb9bfe09bcbe06ce6bc4862ba2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7145…89e6backed Yes | 15c | 1,141$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 999.98$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 32c | 811.06$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.65 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 32c | 700$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…9019backed Yes | 25c | 632.98$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 65c | 441$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.89 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…7388backed Yes | 35c | 402.97$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 40c | 371.88$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.79 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1efebacked Yes | 33c | 304.01$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 63c | 253$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…0454backed Yes | 35c | 220$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 65c | 166.19$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 29c | 157$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 37c | 119.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 14c | 106.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 14c | 104.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x801f…ea09backed Yes | 39c | 100.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 40c | 91.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 86.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2536…d5b6backed Yes | 31c | 81.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 64c | 69.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa551…c88cbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 69c | 62.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 69c | 62.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 33c | 46.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…94bdbacked Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 70c | 30.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 67c | 27.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Innsbruck host Eurovision 2026?this page
- Will Graz host Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Vienna host Eurovision 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.