Chess · resolved market
Will Game 9 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x322ada7d3871dc458710426a6cfe638467e348f5637aaf532961b47f53f540ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 2c | 5,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes | 65c | 5,000$3,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked No | 35c | 4,553$1,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,592.4 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed No | 34c | 2,204$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.73 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked No | 7c | 1,387$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed Yes | 77c | 1,135$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.95 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d4…b609backed Yes | 68c | 1,110$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 1,094$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.9 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +175.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 64c | 999.99$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…c0c4backed No | 2c | 889.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…cdaabacked No | 11c | 872.29$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.95 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…9360backed Yes | 75c | 476$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed No | 15c | 461.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed No | 5c | 426.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 70c | 375.68$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.96 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…4805backed Yes | 64c | 369.52$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 75c | 347.66$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked No | 23c | 271.45$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 65c | 270$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…d48cbacked No | 9c | 260.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…dc0fbacked No | 5c | 249.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 8c | 180.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4f…f206backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…1c9ebacked Yes | 79c | 126.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 66c | 99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 74c | 90.51$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 63c | 87.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…4198backed No | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…f8c4backed Yes | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956b…ebb6backed No | 33c | 78.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x372b…c159backed Yes | 76c | 76.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 37c | 72.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 77c | 61.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf033…9ea3backed Yes | 69c | 52.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7db…3199backed Yes | 74c | 51.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…a693backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…7340backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b8…e932backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48e…8f7dbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3795…4c73backed Yes | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b7…b222backed Yes | 62c | 28.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Game 9 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?this page
- Will Ding Liren win Game 9 of the World Chess Championship?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 9 of the World Chess Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.