Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. invade Iran before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0c0d4b16191cefab5c6dcda1797fc32cbaf7d495afb973bdb071d6dbea46581
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,038,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $915,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,038,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 2c | 159,363$2,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,407.11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 22cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf647…c13ebacked Yes | 3c | 33,970$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…ada5backed Yes | 3c | 25,798$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf543…c0b6backed Yes | 4c | 25,594$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 2c | 20,950$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.88 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 17,945$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.48 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1b…1a06backed Yes | 3c | 17,489$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…038ebacked Yes | 2c | 16,938$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…3066backed Yes | 4c | 16,742$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…ff9bbacked Yes | 2c | 13,522$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 2c | 12,835$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.74 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51c1…9771backed Yes | 1c | 12,272$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 2c | 12,002$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.35 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,909$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.76 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 2c | 11,868$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.47 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…ec8fbacked Yes | 4c | 10,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 9,738$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.63 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 3c | 9,344$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.03 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 2c | 9,052$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.93 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0c…fb96backed Yes | 2c | 6,245$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 2c | 6,208$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a4…1899backed Yes | 4c | 5,922$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9abbbacked Yes | 2c | 5,144$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaed…216bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,099$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 2c | 5,030$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.26 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 4,965$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…b009backed Yes | 2c | 4,704$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 0c | 4,649$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8148…836ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,545$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfb…7b61backed Yes | 3c | 4,054$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 1c | 3,960$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa0…a852backed Yes | 1c | 3,507$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…e263backed Yes | 4c | 3,313$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…54e0backed Yes | 2c | 3,016$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +226.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 3c | 2,737$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1c…acecbacked Yes | 2c | 2,732$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2db…522cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,532$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +613.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…8a8cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,467$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf569…5ed2backed Yes | 2c | 2,298$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa414…aa64backed Yes | 1c | 2,256$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,251$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a37…b78fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,085$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d0…1fa4backed Yes | 1c | 2,065$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3c…9f4bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,995$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…0b1abacked Yes | 2c | 1,874$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9af3…9215backed Yes | 3c | 1,862$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe135…a344backed Yes | 1c | 1,790$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a04…ae43backed Yes | 3c | 1,738$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3117…59c3backed Yes | 1c | 1,738$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,720$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…9b14backed Yes | 3c | 1,715$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…a1bebacked Yes | 3c | 1,700$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdd…4dd4backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…9902backed Yes | 3c | 1,565$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa46b…7deabacked Yes | 3c | 1,553$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3da…f230backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff1…8637backed Yes | 3c | 1,462$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa689…4cf5backed Yes | 3c | 1,437$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e3…e145backed Yes | 1c | 1,434$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…7315backed Yes | 1c | 1,429$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…7260backed Yes | 1c | 1,426$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d5…8fd3backed Yes | 2c | 1,402$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…796cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,280$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 3c | 1,273$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 2c | 1,177$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ff…f74cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c39…9bdcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,058$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…64b8backed Yes | 2c | 1,047$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5f…0b66backed Yes | 3c | 1,037$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc63…d225backed Yes | 2c | 1,021$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…21d0backed Yes | 5c | 1,002$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37a5…3744backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…10c8backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df3…aa20backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ca…3055backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…a363backed Yes | 7c | 899.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 5c | 858.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Yes | 2c | 854.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…ffe9backed Yes | 3c | 794.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eec…2cbdbacked Yes | 1c | 785.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…eb14backed Yes | 5c | 779.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 2c | 744.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…9405backed Yes | 4c | 722.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…725ebacked Yes | 2c | 714.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…9f06backed Yes | 2c | 690.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0875…646bbacked Yes | 2c | 681.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2235…e833backed Yes | 3c | 673.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2d…d45cbacked Yes | 3c | 670$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc5…d952backed Yes | 3c | 648.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.