TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel military action against Iran before August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,826
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,046

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,826 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbc54…680fbacked No12c4,929$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.259831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No33c4,327$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,427.823225%8 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5bac…6634backed Yes67c3,832$2,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,264.471266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+66.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xae7c…757fbacked Yes64c3,356$2,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.33850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes76c2,972$2,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.87946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66b8…b5f0backed Yes66c2,952$1,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.221838.9%7 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes69c1,831$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.363250%16 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb66…3103backed No37c1,799$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.2140%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed No30c1,628$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.298617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No11c1,401$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.412038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked No29c1,343$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.952828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No3c1,341$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5526619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4760…0a49backed No28c1,099$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.952181%17 W · 4 L+6.1wins+0.29per pick52cpaid+55.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes70c1,065$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.754156.1%23 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked No36c1,000$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3558834.1%30 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2704126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cbf…4665backed Yes70c933.47$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.946546.2%30 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No29c799.98$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23016739.5%66 W · 101 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1397…960abacked No33c757.58$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+48.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Yes75c727.58$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.895032%16 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes68c680.43$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.69742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8507…948abacked No31c641.6$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004528.9%13 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No28c638$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.6415234.2%52 W · 100 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcda1…d9adbacked No29c600$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1746637.9%25 W · 41 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a53…7f24backed Yes68c590.71$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.71560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+35.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8258…f51ebacked No31c555.7$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.172035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x566d…d58fbacked Yes69c505.13$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.133557.1%20 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+50.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfc6b…afc9backed Yes66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1701250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes74c489.43$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.728427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb9…d6c3backed Yes65c480.66$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.231361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xad8e…709cbacked Yes71c400$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1162347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes66c400$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13864339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes67c399.99$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1325743.9%25 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes67c372.85$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.8551138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c334$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.841,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed No26c249.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652030%6 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes68c222$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.1514129.8%42 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No24c211$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.659711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked No30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-72.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c34…c8b8backed No30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb02e…25e5backed Yes68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes67c194.91$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7342120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No31c193$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.513629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x64ad…3050backed No30c178.43$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.572227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-55.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked No32c174.3$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.788037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5de…8547backed Yes69c159.85$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+79%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa59a…e37cbacked Yes68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.062100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No32c147$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.461235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x722c…e4ccbacked Yes68c144.86$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.86475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+60.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fa5…b2f6backed Yes70c142.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.213043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4971…7488backed No29c130.38$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8140%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No31c120.16$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4540828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked No34c111$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.745745.6%26 W · 31 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-26.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3477636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f89…b168backed Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9512932.6%42 W · 87 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c89…9d7fbacked Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+56.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked No34c88.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303669.4%25 W · 11 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+39.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9394…37dabacked Yes69c86.96$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.961931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c8c…2e4bbacked Yes70c85.33$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.33728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid+124.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No20c82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.673455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe21e…4d48backed Yes71c80$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No35c75.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed No31c75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.258529.4%25 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22c3…289cbacked Yes68c73.61$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.612842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x995c…8770backed Yes66c70$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.84858.3%28 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No42c62.75$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6220247%95 W · 107 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes65c61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.352536%9 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+71.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a3d…615ebacked Yes68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.222365.2%15 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x206c…f409backed Yes63c58.86$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.493100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+219.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes68c55$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf746…614abacked No34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e4b…cac2backed No26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No24c47.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4126616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No38c46.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0514945%67 W · 82 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6538…9070backed No35c45.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.98250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ab…61f0backed No32c43.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf233…6ab2backed Yes67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.22657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5838…3636backed No33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed No33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.29840.8%40 W · 58 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd9…bccebacked No33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134639.1%18 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df6…30a9backed Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202356.5%13 W · 10 L+5.9wins+0.25per pick31cpaid+168.2%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xada6…8bcfbacked Yes67c35.45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.811050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a8a…3430backed Yes73c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.562147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1560…b3a2backed Yes73c20.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-64%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf18f…294cbacked Yes63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.42740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe009…4430backed Yes64c16.88$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes69c15.22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.652441.7%10 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick31cpaid-11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.