TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel military action against Iran by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,937,291
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,440,640

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,937,291 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 370 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xddc9…2a9abacked No1c301,832$2,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,894.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0afc…30b2backed Yes21c162,664$33,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128,735.29683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.45per pick38cpaid+136.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x909f…a8c3backed Yes15c158,043$23,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134,628.81862.5%5 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick23cpaid+233.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd5de…ac1abacked Yes22c115,812$25,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90,809.672100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+244.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc474…97a1backed No0c114,000$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5afd…7e8dbacked Yes19c110,496$20,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89,805.281822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No64c84,227$53,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,620.756134.4%21 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3a6…8c44backed Yes16c82,864$13,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,819.221060%6 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+66.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No3c81,621$2,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,785.782321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-52.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked No59c69,625$41,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,303.084032.5%13 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-52%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked No75c64,479$48,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,228.053135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-46.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x34cd…4231backed Yes17c52,178$8,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,288.151442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+96.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ff…d068backed Yes28c49,553$13,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,562.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+254.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb18…f867backed Yes13c47,698$6,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,572.8757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.39per pick18cpaid+352.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed Yes15c44,938$6,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,259.0315743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No79c44,390$34,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,863.044257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c2c…2d2abacked Yes15c43,253$6,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,920.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+583%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes17c37,812$6,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,356.898641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b2c…b691backed Yes14c34,849$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,848.66475%3 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.54per pick21cpaid+278.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4d20…16ddbacked Yes18c32,698$6,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,659.572100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+262.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes14c31,941$4,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,364.734231%13 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed No75c31,310$23,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,430.27542.7%32 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcda1…d9adbacked No23c27,893$6,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,372.036637.9%25 W · 41 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes20c26,133$5,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,799.63969.2%27 W · 12 L+10.0wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+77.9%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x6abe…d6a5backed No36c24,816$9,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,033.683775.7%28 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe12a…d428backed Yes17c23,900$3,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,953.941258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+138.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x101c…4392backed No2c23,200$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5611225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0a0…ac10backed Yes28c22,000$6,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,865.844100%4 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+168%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9622…01efbacked Yes18c21,799$3,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,850.862748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037e…0c63backed Yes11c21,042$2,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,665.633336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No45c20,944$9,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,482.6915234.2%52 W · 100 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c8…04b1backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No78c18,120$14,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,123.9651138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5739…0126backed Yes17c17,731$3,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,652.662240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No74c16,741$12,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,432.268333.7%28 W · 55 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No76c16,729$12,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,715.5940433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec0b…69e6backed Yes17c15,704$2,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,068.967751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e78…bc8dbacked Yes20c15,603$3,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,492.89650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+51.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed Yes14c15,240$2,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,089.743342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0301…aa15backed Yes15c15,093$2,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,837.122832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb6…2124backed Yes14c14,770$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,769.661225%3 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+33.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1eab…efd2backed Yes16c14,742$2,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,364.861723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+48.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e82…f3b0backed No1c14,320$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.28per pick46cpaid-58.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb01a…f311backed Yes27c14,120$3,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,283.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+268.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cde…38dabacked Yes21c13,039$2,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,241.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+133.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes18c12,730$2,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,444.466944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa84f…bc44backed No3c12,249$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.535248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a0e…e56bbacked No72c12,080$8,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,640.420%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdb5…cd5bbacked Yes29c11,902$3,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,483.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+248.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf459…a5c8backed Yes16c11,760$1,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,850.311643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick23cpaid+65.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f00…2b5bbacked Yes19c11,194$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,064.471442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed Yes15c10,604$1,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,995.568056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe6e…074ebacked Yes22c10,568$2,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,205.432454.2%13 W · 11 L+9.4wins+0.39per pick15cpaid+308.2%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xa7fa…16cbbacked No80c10,430$8,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,337.86666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b4a…a17fbacked Yes20c9,833$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,873.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+401.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes23c9,570$2,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,375.043250%16 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No1c9,547$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7726619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cb7…6ec9backed Yes16c9,487$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,006.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+541%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed Yes36c9,436$3,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,029.8921259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No77c9,380$7,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,268.465127.5%14 W · 37 L+7.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+151%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x038f…ba58backed No1c9,160$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5510…2083backed Yes27c8,333$2,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,049.031421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No69c8,331$5,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,787.937145.1%32 W · 39 L-8.3wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-29.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9c8e…9883backed Yes31c8,124$2,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,622.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+224.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No75c7,924$5,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,918.3335347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8f2…b74abacked No76c7,561$5,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,734.08837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No79c7,500$5,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,914.8311141.4%46 W · 65 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4760…0a49backed No73c7,438$5,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,455.332181%17 W · 4 L+6.1wins+0.29per pick52cpaid+55.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x02af…272fbacked Yes20c7,378$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,878.462100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+298.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x718b…af31backed Yes12c7,266$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,366.2560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+130%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b0…881dbacked Yes14c7,033$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,033.913511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No54c7,013$3,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,806.616650%33 W · 33 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No69c7,000$4,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8302142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked No79c6,954$5,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,493.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No73c6,914$5,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,020.8131241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes68c6,864$4,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,196.424835.4%17 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1287…e491backed Yes16c6,824$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,764.384717%8 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb2…2677backed Yes15c6,655$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,655.022040%8 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+30.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes12c6,556$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,779.287032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21fe…7b71backed Yes62c6,437$4,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,424.841145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No80c6,070$4,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,849.21573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+48.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x53af…629fbacked Yes17c6,062$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,055.62616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No73c5,969$4,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,327.919831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes20c5,874$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,724.0389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa22d…ea45backed No79c5,657$4,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,444.621020%2 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-71.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4fad…2eaabacked No76c5,327$4,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,028.57633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-51%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No0c5,241$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.97647.8%5 W · 59 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-53.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No79c5,100$4,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,003.9937740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes18c5,071$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,165.611421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No64c5,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2007247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed No7c4,800$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601631.3%5 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.24per pick7cpaid+413.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes53c4,439$2,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,086.6319930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed No78c4,301$3,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,374.1910639.6%42 W · 64 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked No1c4,150$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a4…3b43backed Yes15c4,125$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,525520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a33…c087backed Yes20c4,088$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,288.243020%6 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf58f…37a4backed Yes15c4,063$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,473.431353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick33cpaid+104.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked No64c4,001$2,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,546.385745.6%26 W · 31 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-26.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb9f2…0c24backed Yes12c3,969$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,479.452714.8%4 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-40.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4837…9103backed Yes18c3,863$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,177.83475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+108.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.