Chess · resolved market
CCT Semis: Firouzja vs. Nepomniachtchi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd9f6074c523b9dfe40ccbefb5afc4db6da39abbfc00a8bb3ccbfdfd8e4cb211
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nepomniachtchiof Firouzja, Nepomniachtchi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Firouzja | 53c | 2,027$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked Firouzja | 6c | 1,500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ea…97f1backed Firouzja | 7c | 1,096$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Nepomniachtchi | 54c | 620$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.9 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5335…0b0fbacked Firouzja | 7c | 300.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Nepomniachtchi | 39c | 153.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Firouzja | 70c | 96.35$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f66…4f72backed Nepomniachtchi | 30c | 88.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Firouzja | 59c | 72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked Nepomniachtchi | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…bdadbacked Firouzja | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…a9bebacked Firouzja | 73c | 27.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.