Premier League · resolved market
Will Leicester vs. Arsenal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb88bc628520d2d140b32a277467af57be3a9e73a1f728046ea01b2e176ffbb47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 18c | 19,596$3,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,525.7 | 172 | 34.3%59 W · 113 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 16c | 10,829$1,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,725.14 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 77c | 3,298$2,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.38 | 147 | 32.7%48 W · 99 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb091…2017backed Yes | 34c | 2,915$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd87…f55ebacked Yes | 14c | 2,500$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,736$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.45 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…7724backed Yes | 59c | 1,704$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,374$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.07 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…efeebacked Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 58c | 895.3$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.49 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Yes | 39c | 678.69$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.32 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed No | 5c | 600.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.07 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 53c | 564.61$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 18c | 563.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 16c | 480$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a74…57dcbacked Yes | 17c | 310$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa0…e7cfbacked Yes | 49c | 263.77$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221f…6be8backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Yes | 17c | 242.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -12.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…7d44backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 16c | 99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f80…cf55backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52b…ed37backed Yes | 17c | 94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…c93bbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…965cbacked Yes | 18c | 66.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…9ca0backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 44c | 45.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…b6aebacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…3c3abacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…09d3backed Yes | 60c | 30.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…a021backed Yes | 38c | 27.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Leicester vs. Arsenal end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-02-15?Yes won
- Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.