Premier League · resolved market
Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb72ee5c81071931f10bb680bd6d9584aa162f0b3494e0f93453bb5f86f4a20a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3510…2492backed Yes | 8c | 10,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb091…2017backed Yes | 11c | 9,118$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d99…d5c2backed Yes | 9c | 8,184$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…4afebacked Yes | 9c | 7,451$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 10c | 6,760$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.41 | 320 | 37.2%119 W · 201 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 8c | 6,077$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.46 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bf45backed Yes | 9c | 5,278$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 8c | 5,220$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.57 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.4 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea0…aa04backed Yes | 11c | 1,834$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…03c2backed Yes | 11c | 1,309$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 5c | 1,250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 147 | 32.7%48 W · 99 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 9c | 1,100$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb826…8d67backed Yes | 10c | 1,034$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 9c | 999.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…054dbacked Yes | 9c | 953.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14dd…13eebacked Yes | 8c | 914.44$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdba…3e7abacked Yes | 11c | 910.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 10c | 900$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Yes | 8c | 665.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…3cdbbacked Yes | 8c | 610.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 8c | 573.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 9c | 540$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 157 | 26.8%42 W · 115 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2e…44c3backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 8c | 481.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8175…e4b8backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…dc1dbacked Yes | 9c | 356$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Yes | 11c | 353.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf25…224cbacked Yes | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -12.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x221f…6be8backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…c93bbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 7c | 210.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358f…e554backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…590bbacked Yes | 9c | 170.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eab…df8bbacked Yes | 9c | 158$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa610…0461backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…cd06backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…b0debacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5130…6cedbacked Yes | 9c | 148$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8826…9607backed Yes | 9c | 142$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf80…0a90backed Yes | 9c | 112$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b7…af8bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-02-15?Yes won
- Will Leicester vs. Arsenal end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.