Chess · resolved market
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8df7982f92e256b11748d86d5df1d58caa36869164ea28d0e88afb1f4f3cdc2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed Yes | 8c | 4,438$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 3c | 4,438$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.39 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…7249backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.61 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 1,862$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…e4a7backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9816…cc22backed Yes | 3c | 1,244$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40c…8192backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed Yes | 5c | 997.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes | 7c | 732.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -42%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 6c | 701$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…68fabacked Yes | 6c | 679.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd48…db01backed Yes | 5c | 550$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 17c | 493.04$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.11 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf349…680abacked Yes | 6c | 469.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…c9cdbacked Yes | 10c | 456$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0302…f3fabacked Yes | 3c | 431.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…cc76backed Yes | 4c | 407.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 4c | 390.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed Yes | 5c | 384.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 7c | 358.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…fd3cbacked Yes | 21c | 342.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 3c | 316.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…73ccbacked Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…5788backed Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…bdadbacked Yes | 9c | 169.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…2040backed Yes | 8c | 160.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 28c | 81.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…0f5cbacked Yes | 29c | 48.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fc…2b38backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6b…a799backed No | 78c | 33.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b7…bbe8backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?this page
- Will Alexander Grischuk win the 2024 World Rapid Chess Chamionship?No won
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Anish Giri win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Daniel Naroditsky win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Jeffery Xiong win the World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Levon Aronian win the World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Shakhriyar Mamedyarov win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Volodar Murzin win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?Yes won
- Will Wei Yi win the World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Wesley So win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.