Chess · resolved market
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce81bf7d6eb86fe2ed3a791021a843001d14e2fb3a06edeaaafc611e86680ec4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7626…d258backed Yes | 16c | 5,732$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 3c | 4,223$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.51 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes | 7c | 3,112$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 8c | 2,602$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.88 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed Yes | 8c | 2,121$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.24 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e80…9eadbacked Yes | 7c | 1,929$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,579$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.38 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed Yes | 8c | 1,415$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.65 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…c328backed Yes | 12c | 1,406$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf89e…1783backed Yes | 15c | 1,352$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.77 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked Yes | 10c | 1,247$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cb…3accbacked Yes | 16c | 1,190$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 10c | 1,100$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.85 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…1928backed Yes | 9c | 1,029$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.82 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 10c | 997.53$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed Yes | 17c | 800$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ff7cbacked Yes | 11c | 760.55$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.66 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…7726backed Yes | 10c | 737$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4f…965cbacked Yes | 6c | 582.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77eb…e2bebacked Yes | 18c | 549.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0302…f3fabacked Yes | 15c | 520.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…7249backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…b46dbacked Yes | 15c | 466.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3366…e5bebacked Yes | 9c | 449.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 11c | 424.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…caeebacked Yes | 14c | 333.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 16c | 309.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes | 14c | 288.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 14c | 279.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…d03cbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…515dbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb9…572fbacked Yes | 18c | 249.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed Yes | 17c | 234.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59f…cd73backed Yes | 17c | 210.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd48…db01backed Yes | 11c | 209.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…08a5backed Yes | 11c | 203.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…fd3cbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…b61cbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…be6fbacked Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd06…c16ebacked Yes | 15c | 176.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…e6c1backed Yes | 9c | 170$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 18c | 168.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…f67bbacked Yes | 16c | 166.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Yes | 12c | 162$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b7…bbe8backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…4c4fbacked Yes | 14c | 145.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…5788backed Yes | 12c | 140$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…1205backed Yes | 12c | 122.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…7340backed Yes | 13c | 114.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…1122backed Yes | 18c | 110.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068b…2152backed Yes | 10c | 101.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68ca…68b0backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3795…4c73backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 80c | 62.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298f…85adbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…448cbacked No | 79c | 27.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…82cdbacked No | 79c | 25.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…c786backed No | 78c | 18.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…1153backed No | 79c | 17.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0015…11b9backed No | 79c | 14.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?this page
- Will Alexander Grischuk win the 2024 World Rapid Chess Chamionship?No won
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Anish Giri win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Daniel Naroditsky win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Jeffery Xiong win the World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Levon Aronian win the World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Shakhriyar Mamedyarov win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Volodar Murzin win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?Yes won
- Will Wei Yi win the World Rapid Championship?No won
- Will Wesley So win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.