TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Daniel Naroditsky win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,284
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,605

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,284 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x752e…81c4backed Yes24c4,107$1,005 inLost-$1,004.721717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-71.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6932…e4a7backed Yes3c3,123$103 inLost-$103.06119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-83.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes0c3,000$12 inLost-$126713.4%9 W · 58 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1cb…3accbacked Yes18c2,857$520 inLost-$520.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7414…8e95backed Yes3c1,607$49 inLost-$48.613116.1%5 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd69…a2e1backed No80c1,340$1,067 inWon+$272.881346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec75…8786backed Yes25c1,000$250 inLost-$2505324.5%13 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6753…7340backed Yes17c774.83$130 inLost-$129.722045%9 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb59f…cd73backed Yes23c647.48$152 inLost-$151.62236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+66.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c606.61$15 inLost-$15.3311011.8%13 W · 97 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes4c500$20 inLost-$201118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-64%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe87a…6d01backed Yes15c351.9$53 inLost-$52.791921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5396…ded6backed Yes3c340.11$11 inLost-$10.841816.7%3 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+5,582.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53e5…3a31backed Yes5c291.14$15 inLost-$14.562020%4 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6478…548fbacked Yes16c243$39 inLost-$39.172842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x906b…fd3cbacked No76c215$163 inWon+$51.6147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-90.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes24c204.79$49 inLost-$49767.9%6 W · 70 L-12.3wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-66.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9816…cc22backed Yes7c200$14 inLost-$142010%2 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-63.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ffe…be6fbacked Yes15c101.33$15 inLost-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…7726backed Yes14c100$14 inLost-$141330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-48.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa54…f2aabacked Yes25c60$15 inLost-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3aa1…15d0backed No79c30$24 inWon+$6.4650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe408…232bbacked No77c15$12 inWon+$3.454100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+68.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.