TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Levon Aronian win the World Rapid Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,969
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,331

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,969 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes1c5,349$39 inLost-$39.156713.4%9 W · 58 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ac…a261backed Yes1c3,524$32 inLost-$31.67714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes3c2,400$68 inLost-$68.171717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6478…548fbacked Yes2c2,111$49 inLost-$49.162842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dc3…7865backed Yes2c2,019$36 inLost-$36.12922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid-50.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes7c1,801$125 inLost-$124.565435.2%19 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-38%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c1,696$11 inLost-$10.9211011.8%13 W · 97 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5396…ded6backed Yes1c1,600$16 inLost-$161816.7%3 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+5,582.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd48…db01backed Yes1c1,407$17 inLost-$17.072010%2 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-82.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec75…8786backed Yes11c900.9$100 inLost-$1005324.5%13 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc62d…9dedbacked Yes8c600$49 inLost-$49.21030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0302…f3fabacked Yes7c507.25$35 inLost-$35100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf786…73ccbacked Yes2c463.76$11 inLost-$10.671216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-69.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd055…515dbacked Yes3c399.35$12 inLost-$11.751717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x821e…7478backed Yes8c240.96$20 inLost-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-56.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes8c225$17 inLost-$17119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid+104.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Yes8c162$13 inLost-$12.9650%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.