TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,650
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,147

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,650 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes8c5,409$411 inLost-$411.492733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes8c5,016$393 inLost-$393.131717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-71.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe87a…6d01backed Yes5c4,249$208 inLost-$208.21921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes6c3,484$193 inLost-$193.056713.4%9 W · 58 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Yes5c2,161$108 inLost-$108.079247.8%44 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ac…a261backed Yes6c1,933$116 inLost-$115.99714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7414…8e95backed Yes1c1,931$24 inLost-$23.793116.1%5 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c1,137$71 inLost-$71.1311011.8%13 W · 97 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b0…1f4bbacked Yes3c1,126$35 inLost-$35911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-79%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost-$502313%3 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes2c828.67$20 inLost-$20.1790%0 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed Yes7c755.64$49 inLost-$49.362213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-77.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf786…73ccbacked Yes7c662.45$44 inLost-$43.521216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-69.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf8a…68fabacked Yes5c622.45$30 inLost-$30175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-90.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes2c608.99$13 inLost-$12.7890%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes5c600$27 inLost-$275223.1%12 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0302…f3fabacked Yes5c428.68$20 inLost-$19.8100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcef4…6c83backed Yes5c400$18 inLost-$18.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-48.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9816…cc22backed Yes5c366.76$20 inLost-$19.542010%2 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-63.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2774…07dfbacked Yes8c300$24 inLost-$2430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes8c273.08$21 inLost-$21767.9%6 W · 70 L-12.3wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-66.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xec75…8786backed Yes8c267.17$23 inLost-$22.565324.5%13 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe121…1d13backed Yes12c170$20 inLost-$20.4837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…2858backed Yes8c130$10 inLost-$10.41546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick31cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.