TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,508
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,387

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,508 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes2c1,463$28 inLost-$28.486713.4%9 W · 58 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ecc…b46dbacked Yes4c1,344$60 inLost-$60100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd48…db01backed Yes2c1,282$30 inLost-$30.412010%2 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-82.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Yes2c1,000$17 inLost-$16.53540%14 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b5b…1205backed Yes5c889.3$41 inLost-$41.2840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3366…e5bebacked Yes7c716.28$50 inLost-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3673…7c89backed Yes7c714.29$50 inLost-$502917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes8c700$59 inLost-$59.41717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Yes2c676.28$14 inLost-$13.539247.8%44 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes5c650.74$30 inLost-$30.5119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid+104.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf8a…68fabacked Yes9c492.86$45 inLost-$45175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-90.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0302…f3fabacked Yes6c491.23$28 inLost-$28100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x906b…fd3cbacked Yes7c437.54$31 inLost-$30.61147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-90.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec75…8786backed Yes4c404.87$15 inLost-$15.345324.5%13 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes6c387.64$25 inLost-$25767.9%6 W · 70 L-12.3wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-66.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7dc3…7865backed Yes5c347.41$17 inLost-$17.37922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid-50.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8efb…d2aebacked Yes8c125$10 inLost-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.