Middle East · resolved market
Israel announces end of military operations against Iran by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc94d93a9adf89a2fe3e7ae6ddd2b36d00ee5ce6a099fc5a8c777af19ca54b7d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x372b…2edabacked Yes | 15c | 9,261$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 5c | 4,001$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.76 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…243ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,860$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 10c | 2,304$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.04 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 2,267$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.47 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 4c | 1,812$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,811$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 4c | 1,800$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,689$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 8c | 1,330$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.48 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 1,285$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 1,216$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.56 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 11c | 1,152$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.56 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,103$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,103$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 11c | 1,050$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 11c | 1,035$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf2…aecabacked Yes | 4c | 650.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +79%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 10c | 604.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 5c | 544.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa116…6f3bbacked Yes | 9c | 536.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e2…4d51backed Yes | 7c | 531.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 15c | 500$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…d6c3backed Yes | 6c | 488.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 10c | 401.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac3…e93bbacked Yes | 13c | 377.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…7afbbacked Yes | 16c | 373.43$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 14c | 335.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb9…7557backed Yes | 10c | 304.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0308…182cbacked Yes | 11c | 296.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd45…b7edbacked Yes | 17c | 267.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 12c | 256.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…edf9backed Yes | 13c | 233.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…0800backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd6…74e1backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bd…e8e2backed Yes | 12c | 198.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…d6aebacked Yes | 9c | 162.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd151…2fd4backed Yes | 10c | 158.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a12…d441backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 133.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…0b91backed Yes | 16c | 125.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9b…578cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 109$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dcc…4820backed Yes | 22c | 92.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…7b8bbacked Yes | 14c | 82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 15c | 73.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.