Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Heidenheim be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b2e9c05a6b257ccd8cbdcd976b020bbbef0cd72cdc857e6951b45a05355604d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x567f…6a22backed No | 44c | 2,000$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 8c | 1,805$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 56c | 1,800$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…8fb9backed No | 2c | 1,096$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +815.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 54c | 966.76$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.58 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 65c | 791.29$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.27 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc1…fe91backed No | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 659.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…6b9abacked No | 5c | 647.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 3c | 538.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5a…2cdfbacked Yes | 29c | 504$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 6c | 237.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed No | 45c | 236.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 54c | 218.14$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.28 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…b030backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 6c | 186.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 68c | 186$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d8…45ecbacked No | 9c | 156.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 55c | 144$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34b4…30c6backed No | 21c | 141.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed No | 24c | 104.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…851fbacked No | 35c | 102$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 53c | 93.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…7c7abacked Yes | 36c | 83.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +176.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 36c | 72.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked Yes | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 65c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 46c | 67.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68b7…c0bcbacked Yes | 48c | 55.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf7…db17backed No | 48c | 53.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x369b…5129backed No | 52c | 51.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…403bbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked Yes | 52c | 43.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 79c | 33.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 61c | 28.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Yes | 75c | 25.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 71c | 19.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fc…3e7fbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Heidenheim be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?this page
- Will FC Augsburg be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?No won
- Will FC Koln be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?No won
- Will St. Pauli be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?Yes won
- Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.