Bundesliga · resolved market
Will St. Pauli be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1fccf29139e6be18e434fef88096472e89d134657b1e8e54423cf41b4d60856
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30ee…a587backed No | 51c | 1,923$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked Yes | 49c | 1,912$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.98 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 31c | 1,828$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.67 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 63c | 658.63$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.28 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed Yes | 35c | 642.11$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.23 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 47c | 321.51$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.54 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 13c | 298.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…ef6dbacked No | 28c | 266$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 54c | 224.02$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.67 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 37c | 207$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +214.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 37c | 196.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -62%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 17c | 168.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed No | 14c | 165.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +654%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…6b9abacked No | 61c | 149.24$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…84f1backed Yes | 40c | 145$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 43c | 142.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 63c | 135$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 34c | 131.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 60c | 118$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 115.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb9…3585backed Yes | 64c | 109.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…5e79backed No | 67c | 104.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 63c | 96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf7…db17backed Yes | 56c | 94.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9aa…a9f8backed No | 16c | 94.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…348dbacked No | 78c | 80.48$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…c9d0backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 32c | 62.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 24c | 55.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +815.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 62c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…b030backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 46c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…1c56backed Yes | 74c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5a…2cdfbacked Yes | 25c | 44.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…cc1cbacked Yes | 38c | 42.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 41c | 42.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 67c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 51c | 34.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1995…0de9backed Yes | 33c | 33.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +200.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 43c | 32.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d3…264ebacked No | 48c | 31.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb326…d18bbacked No | 64c | 30.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked No | 71c | 28.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 59c | 26.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42fc…4927backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 46c | 24.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebca…da8bbacked Yes | 52c | 24.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…ea1dbacked Yes | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b8…2dfebacked Yes | 53c | 23.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 22.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d36…06edbacked Yes | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will St. Pauli be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?this page
- Will FC Augsburg be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?No won
- Will FC Heidenheim be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?Yes won
- Will FC Koln be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?No won
- Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.