Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Koln be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e925ab355d912ed3010f386ee2b62e071823f8fd15660e4eeae92b11e2963f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,368 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 1c | 20,075$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 80c | 566.97$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.54 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +815.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5a…2cdfbacked Yes | 15c | 382.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb326…d18bbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…a587backed No | 79c | 195.74$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 13c | 185.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…bf97backed Yes | 6c | 162.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a2…95e0backed Yes | 26c | 160$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 16c | 152.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710f…634abacked Yes | 28c | 140.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 71c | 100.14$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f91…8543backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e4…79adbacked Yes | 24c | 84.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa331…7092backed Yes | 18c | 78.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bc…eb11backed Yes | 19c | 77.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68b7…c0bcbacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 78c | 68.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 33c | 60.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 17c | 59.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 79c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…b030backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed No | 65c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Koln be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?this page
- Will FC Augsburg be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?No won
- Will FC Heidenheim be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?Yes won
- Will St. Pauli be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?Yes won
- Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.