Us Politics · resolved market
Trump wins a solid blue state?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea4002c56d118cab706bf6cd34783948f5523a06239f7e59f443ac683f0fa140
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,292,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,101,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,292,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 289 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 16c | 401,501$64,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64,589.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 15c | 122,437$18,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,700.95 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…6569backed Yes | 20c | 120,559$24,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,115.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 17c | 97,463$16,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,961.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc9…3614backed Yes | 16c | 71,203$11,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,529.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 15c | 67,058$10,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,391.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…8c31backed Yes | 16c | 63,212$10,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,413.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 7c | 57,953$3,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,934.86 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 16c | 57,747$9,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,379.47 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6deb…c9adbacked No | 79c | 52,501$41,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,065.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…f19bbacked Yes | 17c | 43,280$7,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,485.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…dcf6backed Yes | 15c | 34,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e28…af8abacked Yes | 17c | 29,412$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 15c | 25,400$3,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,728.06 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…e1ebbacked Yes | 13c | 25,165$3,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,274.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…9373backed Yes | 1c | 23,331$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 21c | 23,000$4,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,924 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…c81dbacked Yes | 23c | 22,045$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fa…1ff7backed Yes | 17c | 21,025$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9b…6e75backed Yes | 17c | 20,000$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c34…026fbacked No | 80c | 18,659$14,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,805.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 17c | 16,803$2,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,868.29 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked Yes | 19c | 14,507$2,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,776.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 14c | 14,260$2,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,032.87 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b93…843abacked Yes | 3c | 13,950$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…c170backed Yes | 19c | 13,084$2,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,425.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…15f1backed Yes | 13c | 12,966$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes | 15c | 12,512$1,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,871.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…ddc1backed Yes | 17c | 12,293$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3c…1bc1backed Yes | 17c | 11,927$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 79c | 10,972$8,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,304.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 15c | 10,471$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.58 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f57…795fbacked Yes | 23c | 9,127$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…8a2cbacked Yes | 16c | 9,060$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26e…6148backed Yes | 12c | 8,860$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 77c | 7,775$5,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,792.38 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 25c | 7,300$1,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,832 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1b…393dbacked Yes | 4c | 7,215$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa80d…5558backed Yes | 15c | 6,633$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 19c | 6,345$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…c340backed Yes | 22c | 6,205$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e69…b7ecbacked Yes | 19c | 5,858$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e8…5066backed Yes | 20c | 5,110$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708f…f236backed Yes | 18c | 5,000$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a07…7768backed Yes | 18c | 4,986$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2e…40dabacked Yes | 16c | 4,874$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3440…e7f7backed Yes | 3c | 4,543$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 16c | 4,519$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.75 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 9c | 3,604$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.01 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…021dbacked Yes | 21c | 3,384$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9c…be11backed Yes | 3c | 3,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9420…a866backed Yes | 15c | 3,173$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa033…47eebacked Yes | 4c | 3,165$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6c…bd90backed Yes | 14c | 3,020$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Yes | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…e21bbacked Yes | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579e…eda1backed Yes | 15c | 2,650$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 2,641$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.32 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb970…5866backed Yes | 3c | 2,625$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…91a4backed Yes | 12c | 2,533$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe940…cc2bbacked Yes | 16c | 2,278$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8282…06a1backed Yes | 18c | 2,227$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 13c | 2,196$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.53 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf24…79d1backed Yes | 16c | 2,188$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…72c1backed Yes | 15c | 1,973$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…a222backed Yes | 3c | 1,900$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x268d…8874backed Yes | 16c | 1,875$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 79c | 1,867$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.38 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 10c | 1,656$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.85 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…fe12backed Yes | 20c | 1,515$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.29 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…f457backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…cee6backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…debbbacked Yes | 25c | 1,424$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece1…2b04backed Yes | 18c | 1,394$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0c…e716backed Yes | 2c | 1,383$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32bc…1dabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d9…62b4backed Yes | 16c | 1,313$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6e…2f0ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,293$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9045…5109backed Yes | 15c | 1,273$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…0626backed No | 31c | 1,234$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.77 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +6.5wins | +0.34per pick | 24cpaid | +178.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec3…f154backed Yes | 22c | 1,222$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4104…c5f6backed Yes | 17c | 1,222$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…f4e0backed No | 80c | 1,184$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…ce61backed No | 79c | 1,180$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd329…45c1backed Yes | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a4…7547backed Yes | 17c | 1,170$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed Yes | 16c | 1,138$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +229.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9918…2365backed Yes | 20c | 1,026$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe91f…cfc8backed Yes | 7c | 1,014$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…f8d9backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…c256backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…20acbacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb5…5592backed No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa73c…4c41backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…9b60backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59f…3d5dbacked Yes | 13c | 937.03$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…f79dbacked Yes | 19c | 918.78$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 15c | 899.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf28…fcd8backed Yes | 17c | 893.6$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.