TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Marlins vs. Nationals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Marlinsof Marlins, Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$243,049
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$258,727

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,049 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee00…cea1backed Nationals53c115,150$61,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,029.7335854.5%195 W · 163 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf980…6528backed Marlins47c100,515$47,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,273.111746.2%54 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Marlins47c18,000$8,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,54041850%209 W · 209 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe768…9d43backed Nationals11c11,692$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.3719650.5%99 W · 97 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Nationals21c5,150$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.7195930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Marlins50c3,685$1,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,842.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Nationals12c2,874$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34717136.8%63 W · 108 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b6f…3838backed Marlins78c2,347$1,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.3940547.4%192 W · 213 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nationals26c2,286$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.319,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Marlins48c2,210$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.021,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Marlins49c2,204$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.9560451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Nationals24c2,083$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50039436%142 W · 252 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f8b…754fbacked Nationals6c2,015$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.97180%0 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Nationals9c2,007$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1841,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Nationals52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04069249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Nationals50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00026453.8%142 W · 122 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Marlins48c1,667$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.811,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked Nationals16c1,617$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.3310719.6%21 W · 86 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ed5…e9bfbacked Nationals24c1,442$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.1317744.1%78 W · 99 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Nationals20c1,352$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.9412624.6%31 W · 95 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a06…1e43backed Nationals50c1,050$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5209920.2%20 W · 79 L-12.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-41.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf092…4ebabacked Nationals50c1,030$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.9719852.5%104 W · 94 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Marlins51c1,007$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.4560249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Nationals51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5101,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd59…c3a5backed Nationals50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50013450%67 W · 67 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb45e…605fbacked Marlins72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.1450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7fb…7d8cbacked Nationals50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9599…be88backed Nationals1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025511.8%30 W · 225 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Nationals14c999.96$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.9825416.1%41 W · 213 L-15.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-57.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Nationals40c987.92$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.7566645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals11c886.14$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.972,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Nationals54c869.91$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.981,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nationals50c834.56$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.282,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Marlins48c810.93$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.6993240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Nationals20c809.81$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.141,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Marlins49c760.85$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.2176456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Nationals49c749.93$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.4795850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbe94…7bb6backed Nationals28c702.85$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.81717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…67fdbacked Nationals52c667.93$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3502634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x59de…de22backed Nationals52c660.57$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.55145.1%23 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nationals49c642.04$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.61,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e68…5472backed Nationals28c600$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.42650%13 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24b9…bcb1backed Nationals14c572.29$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7922312.1%27 W · 196 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb26…94ddbacked Nationals14c547.8$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3812314.6%18 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+83.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Nationals52c522.98$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.9514150.4%71 W · 70 L-12.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5327…3b80backed Marlins51c490.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.23545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6407…7d12backed Nationals52c480.77$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25018247.8%87 W · 95 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Nationals51c480.68$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.3433852.1%176 W · 162 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Marlins72c455.28$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.8538741.1%159 W · 228 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a33…2534backed Marlins45c449.94$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.478156.8%46 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Nationals3c439.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.725053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f18…77c9backed Nationals18c439.57$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.658434.5%29 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Nationals53c428.33$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.995,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0778…443ebacked Marlins51c417.24$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.45933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1aea…abf1backed Nationals24c408.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8245…55a0backed Nationals51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2042623.1%6 W · 20 L-5.2wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-49.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7d9e…547dbacked Nationals53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2121241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Marlins47c399.62$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.873,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Nationals34c394.51$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.8654441.2%224 W · 320 L-22.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Nationals51c392.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.993759.5%22 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae7…91debacked Nationals53c377.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4583…0bb9backed Marlins50c376$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18812552.8%66 W · 59 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ee…084abacked Nationals51c367.53$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.39944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bfe…62babacked Nationals52c359.56$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.97944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Marlins71c357.03$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0351953.2%276 W · 243 L-24.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5e6…10d7backed Marlins51c356.51$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.69742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5546…d4cbbacked Marlins49c348.63$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.8944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Nationals17c332.42$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.581,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdeb…fd7ebacked Nationals52c321.25$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.05944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x735d…dd21backed Marlins49c314.63$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.461040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5fe…ae55backed Nationals51c314.06$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.86933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-40.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Marlins50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Nationals46c284.67$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2751334.5%177 W · 336 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Nationals20c277.05$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8332832.3%106 W · 222 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe0…6e30backed Nationals32c270$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.137135.2%25 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc52…a021backed Nationals51c253.12$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0920944%92 W · 117 L-11.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x49ce…13eebacked Nationals51c235.29$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1206538.5%25 W · 40 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-28.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0328…28fabacked Nationals28c218.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.194742.6%20 W · 27 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38ba…92f7backed Nationals46c217.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009246.7%43 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x514b…ad6abacked Marlins47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.777846.2%36 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Marlins49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.082,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfbe…e790backed Nationals25c200.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506450%32 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Marlins51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.082,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd377…a0a5backed Marlins51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0817149.7%85 W · 86 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbc…5d23backed Nationals52c191.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006753.7%36 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Nationals24c187.17$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.648139.5%32 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1df4…0fe8backed Nationals55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008257.3%47 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Nationals53c175$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7517239.5%68 W · 104 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeac7…fec6backed Nationals39c170.09$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.639150.5%46 W · 45 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf060…b07abacked Nationals11c168.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.771020%2 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-63.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Marlins48c167.98$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.071,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Marlins48c162.82$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.2426847.4%127 W · 141 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f4e…3488backed Nationals25c159.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.9wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-49%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Marlins48c158.47$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.3785047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Nationals51c150.98$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7721853.2%116 W · 102 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85a5…6721backed Marlins51c147.06$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.061136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid+11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Nationals7c146.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.92242.7%6 W · 218 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-64.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9a3…7ba2backed Nationals56c140.39$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Marlins51c137.25$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2523938.5%92 W · 147 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e7f…7d7fbacked Nationals15c134.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015256.6%86 W · 66 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.