Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8070698e5dbe25602b803ad60a93a7376919bd04cf1c65073c6be9ac18c80139
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $492,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $456,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $492,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 8c | 23,534$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc585…252dbacked No | 0c | 16,701$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked No | 0c | 15,580$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…6658backed No | 16c | 10,648$1,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740.7 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…5443backed No | 2c | 10,078$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…79eebacked No | 6c | 9,526$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c7…9c32backed No | 9c | 8,222$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…8d10backed No | 3c | 8,042$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked No | 6c | 7,591$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.66 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked No | 2c | 7,156$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3be…1015backed No | 7c | 6,712$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33ce…a3efbacked No | 27c | 6,620$1,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.32 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -60%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked No | 2c | 6,468$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.01 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…07edbacked No | 3c | 6,335$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +242.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 17c | 6,325$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.59 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 9c | 5,714$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.1 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…4a37backed No | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 6c | 5,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7078…31fcbacked Yes | 73c | 4,961$3,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf05…4a54backed No | 4c | 4,760$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…f1edbacked No | 1c | 4,481$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…a090backed No | 6c | 4,238$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked No | 4c | 4,095$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.87 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…fe12backed No | 18c | 3,737$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.06 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1589…688bbacked No | 7c | 3,565$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…72c1backed No | 9c | 3,178$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…db29backed No | 7c | 2,805$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 12c | 2,785$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.03 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b5…a84abacked No | 3c | 2,705$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…923cbacked No | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…de80backed No | 4c | 2,481$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked No | 13c | 2,440$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.03 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ca…1d4bbacked No | 9c | 2,407$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked No | 4c | 2,360$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.76 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3425…84a6backed No | 9c | 2,272$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed No | 16c | 2,096$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.62 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3577…4bd5backed No | 5c | 2,070$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 8c | 2,050$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c7…43eabacked No | 1c | 2,029$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261a…2989backed No | 4c | 2,014$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…9d46backed No | 8c | 1,984$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…87abbacked No | 3c | 1,804$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa241…c443backed No | 2c | 1,787$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d28…84a6backed No | 2c | 1,785$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7191…30c7backed No | 9c | 1,764$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 22c | 1,684$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.59 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b1…9124backed No | 6c | 1,682$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed No | 12c | 1,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 78c | 1,500$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked No | 4c | 1,500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d86…9caabacked No | 2c | 1,456$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4db1…7a85backed No | 16c | 1,453$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…0684backed No | 7c | 1,416$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed No | 7c | 1,368$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc396…f127backed No | 18c | 1,277$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d95…735ebacked No | 6c | 1,249$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 8c | 1,234$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.71 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7003…684bbacked No | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d94…2ecdbacked No | 10c | 1,061$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 19c | 1,057$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.14 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 1,054$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.81 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba29…363bbacked No | 9c | 1,053$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…934dbacked No | 1c | 1,042$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 79c | 1,035$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.77 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d9…0954backed No | 4c | 1,033$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 9c | 1,021$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.11 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +6.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5670…bd63backed No | 10c | 1,011$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33e…a33fbacked No | 10c | 1,001$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe680…8788backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb753…f859backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…89e0backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc28a…2657backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7255…67e0backed No | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dc…1885backed No | 4c | 941.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac9…155abacked No | 21c | 905.95$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 884.77$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.19 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…c051backed No | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed No | 11c | 786$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…d14bbacked No | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19c7…6045backed No | 27c | 732.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…dbd5backed No | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed No | 10c | 700$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…0383backed No | 2c | 697.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab0…6870backed No | 5c | 687.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 77c | 683.19$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.09 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0783…dd27backed No | 6c | 677.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0c…e082backed No | 4c | 658.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3eb…5eb8backed No | 6c | 657.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 8c | 657.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb104…17b1backed No | 16c | 642.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…ea89backed No | 7c | 640.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96cd…73d0backed No | 3c | 630.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 57c | 610.77$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.3 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 48c | 605.88$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.32 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffd…e8a1backed No | 7c | 550.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…6d23backed Yes | 78c | 550$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.71 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 40c | 544.27$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.27 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 37c | 543.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8126…bd2abacked No | 5c | 537.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x512e…58efbacked No | 10c | 536.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET?this page
- Will Israel not strike Yemen by September 30 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 26 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 27 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 28 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 29 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 30 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on or before September 23 ET?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.