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Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$492,308
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$456,318

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $492,308 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb1fe…9974backed No8c23,534$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8001741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc585…252dbacked No0c16,701$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe281…e7bfbacked No0c15,580$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.03258%2 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-79.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x78a2…6658backed No16c10,648$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740.71414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7e…5443backed No2c10,078$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1231…79eebacked No6c9,526$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c7…9c32backed No9c8,222$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.04714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-72.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7820…8d10backed No3c8,042$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked No6c7,591$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.662611.5%3 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x151f…807dbacked No2c7,156$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3be…1015backed No7c6,712$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4403923.1%9 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x33ce…a3efbacked No27c6,620$1,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.321526.7%4 W · 11 L-4.2wins-0.28per pick55cpaid-60%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked No2c6,468$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.01229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-78.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x10ab…07edbacked No3c6,335$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.05742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick14cpaid+242.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed No17c6,325$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.595455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed No9c5,714$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.13732.4%12 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff30…4a37backed No4c5,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked No6c5,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31017018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7078…31fcbacked Yes73c4,961$3,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344.73944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf05…4a54backed No4c4,760$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004436.4%16 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x524b…f1edbacked No1c4,481$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9715…a090backed No6c4,238$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9a4…996dbacked No4c4,095$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.873633.3%12 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7f5…fe12backed No18c3,737$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.061844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1589…688bbacked No7c3,565$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf70c…72c1backed No9c3,178$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.091127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc239…db29backed No7c2,805$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…8360backed No12c2,785$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.038616.3%14 W · 72 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-65.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b5…a84abacked No3c2,705$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdecf…923cbacked No4c2,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31a…de80backed No4c2,481$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0909…91cabacked No13c2,440$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.031233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-45.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06ca…1d4bbacked No9c2,407$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked No4c2,360$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.764425%11 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3425…84a6backed No9c2,272$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd5a…f7a4backed No16c2,096$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.626118%11 W · 50 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3577…4bd5backed No5c2,070$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.96520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed No8c2,050$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15417646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c7…43eabacked No1c2,029$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.92633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x261a…2989backed No4c2,014$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.69714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3aab…9d46backed No8c1,984$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.9750%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c68…87abbacked No3c1,804$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa241…c443backed No2c1,787$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d28…84a6backed No2c1,785$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7191…30c7backed No9c1,764$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No22c1,684$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.5926423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39b1…9124backed No6c1,682$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.54425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-60.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed No12c1,500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1756420.3%13 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick22cpaid+6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes78c1,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32522333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked No4c1,500$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4923525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d86…9caabacked No2c1,456$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.96825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4db1…7a85backed No16c1,453$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.43450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c0a…0684backed No7c1,416$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9b…0f44backed No7c1,368$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc396…f127backed No18c1,277$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.661127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d95…735ebacked No6c1,249$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked No8c1,234$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.715743.9%25 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7003…684bbacked No9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-61.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d94…2ecdbacked No10c1,061$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.08633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes19c1,057$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.148641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No10c1,054$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.811,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba29…363bbacked No9c1,053$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cd6…934dbacked No1c1,042$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed Yes79c1,035$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.778552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34d9…0954backed No4c1,033$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No9c1,021$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.113663.9%23 W · 13 L+6.9wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+33.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x5670…bd63backed No10c1,011$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003917.9%7 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-41.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa33e…a33fbacked No10c1,001$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe680…8788backed No9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb753…f859backed No10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002536%9 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc1…89e0backed No10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002040%8 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc28a…2657backed No10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7255…67e0backed No4c999.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4dc…1885backed No4c941.78$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ac9…155abacked No21c905.95$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.26714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No50c884.77$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.1940828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0238…c051backed No6c833.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8706…0587backed No11c786$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1410555.2%58 W · 47 L+7.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ed2…d14bbacked No2c750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-58.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19c7…6045backed No27c732.91$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…dbd5backed No7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed No10c700$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.65829.3%17 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…0383backed No2c697.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7340%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbab0…6870backed No5c687.35$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No77c683.19$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.0942120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0783…dd27backed No6c677.17$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.41520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d0c…e082backed No4c658.17$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.551435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3eb…5eb8backed No6c657.88$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed No8c657.46$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.319626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb104…17b1backed No16c642.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+57.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38d0…ea89backed No7c640.54$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.042330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-43.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x96cd…73d0backed No3c630.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe277…8e46backed Yes57c610.77$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.316440.2%66 W · 98 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes48c605.88$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.3256336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ffd…e8a1backed No7c550.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6da8…6d23backed Yes78c550$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.711546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes40c544.27$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.2717740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed No37c543.24$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012152.9%64 W · 57 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8126…bd2abacked No5c537.49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x512e…58efbacked No10c536.68$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.