Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel not strike Yemen by September 30 ET?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca15cd77215d931d35481e81f161a29f647478657e975fc10b643e312b1996f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6b0…881dbacked Yes | 0c | 97,617$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.62 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 0c | 7,252$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf784…ab48backed Yes | 0c | 4,917$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d50…1baebacked Yes | 4c | 3,172$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d3…0ac9backed Yes | 1c | 3,087$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 2c | 2,210$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 6c | 2,133$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.81 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 3c | 673.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…fb6abacked Yes | 4c | 522.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 8c | 487.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 16c | 310.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…72c1backed Yes | 19c | 303.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed Yes | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes | 13c | 295$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3577…4bd5backed Yes | 22c | 132.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 21c | 109.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 108.02$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeed9…7405backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 24c | 66.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8147…5039backed Yes | 23c | 65.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 28c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6058…f299backed Yes | 30c | 43.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel not strike Yemen by September 30 ET?this page
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 26 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 27 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 28 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 29 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 30 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on or before September 23 ET?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.